[Freightos Weekly Update] Ocean rates sink across the board despite capacity reductions

Key insights:

1. Ocean rates are falling nearly across the board, with Asia - N. Europe rates below $900/FEU so far this week, and Asia - Mediterranean prices below $1,500/FEU, their lowest level since 2019.

2. Transpacific rates to the East Coast slid to $2,249/FEU yesterday, their lowest mark since 2018. Prices to the West Coast are below $1,500/FEU though these rates are the only of the major lanes to remain above 2019 levels and retain some of the summer-GRI gains as they are still 13% above their mid-July level.

3. Rate declines continue despite significant blanked sailing campaigns and record slow sailing speeds.

4. Freightos Air Index data saw China - N. America rates increase 8% last week to $4.75/kg, and Asia - N. Europe prices climb 6% to $3.94/kg on some increase in demand, though many in the industry remain pessimistic that a significant air cargo peak season will materialize.

Asia - N. Europe prices climb 6% to $3.94/kg on some increase in demand, though many in the industry remain pessimistic that a significant air cargo peak season will materialize.

Ocean rates - Freightos Baltic Index:

• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Weekly) decreased 5% to $1,687/FEU.

• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Weekly) decreased 8% to $2,434/FEU.

• Asia-N. Europe prices (FBX11 Weekly) ticked up 2% to $1,020/FEU.

• Asia-Mediterranean prices (FBX13 Weekly) fell 9% to $1,587/FEU.

Air rates - Freightos Air index

• China - N. America weekly prices increased 8% to $4.75/kg

• China - N. Europe weekly prices increased 6% to $3.94/kg.

• N. Europe - N. America weekly prices were level at $1.67/kg.

Analysis

Ocean spot rates fell nearly across the board last week on a mix of a Golden Week lull, a more general easing of volumes, and persistent capacity growth.

Asia - N. Europe rates were below $900/FEU as of yesterday, despite indications of a gradual improvement in volumes on this lane. Some carriers have already announced November rate increases aimed at pushing these rates back up to profitable levels. Asia - Mediterranean prices are below $1,500/FEU so far this week, their lowest level since 2019.

Asia to N. America East Coast prices fell 8% last week and continued their slide so far this week with daily rates at $2,249/FEU, 18% lower than in 2019 and their lowest level since mid-2018.

Transpacific rates to the West Coast fell last week as well, and slipped below $1,500/FEU as of yesterday. Nonetheless, this is the only major lane with prices still above 2019 levels and that have retained some of the summer GRI-driven gains, with prices still 13% higher than in mid-July.

Ocean rates across these lanes are sinking despite high levels of blank sailings and record-slow sailing speeds, which are expected to persist into next year.

There were more reports of upticks in ex-Asia air cargo demand the last few weeks, and Freightos Air Index data saw China - N. America rates increase 8% last week to $4.75/kg, and Asia - N. Europe prices climb 6% to $3.94/kg. Despite this recent trend, many in the industry remain pessimistic that a significant air cargo peak season will materialize this year.