Freight trends from DAT One and DAT iQ

Flatbed demand keeps climbing; the market preps for $5 diesel

Flatbed carriers remained in high demand during the week of March 1-7, with flatbed loads on the DAT One marketplace up 4% and the average spot rate up 4 cents compared to the previous week. Broker-to-carrier 7-day average spot rates for all three equipment segments:

▼ Dry van: $2.36 per mile, down 3 cents week over week

▼ Refrigerated: $2.75 per mile, down 3 cents

▲ Flatbed: $2.70 per mile, up 4 cents and up 18 cents over the last six weeks

The total number of loads posted to the DAT One marketplace settled lower last week, down 4% to 3.3 million. Truck posts fell to 219,869, also down 4%.

Reduced overall capacity, not a surge in freight volumes, continues to drive long-term spot-market pricing trends. With fuel accounting for roughly one-third of truck operating costs, $5 diesel this week could prompt carriers to park their rigs at least temporarily, exacerbating supply-side pressures.

Van: Load posts ease after weather-driven surge

▼ Van loads: 1.31 million, down 8% week over week

▼ Van equipment: 162,354, down 5%

▼ Linehaul rate: $2.00 per mile, down 2 cents

▼ Load-to-truck ratio: 8.1, down from 8.4

Reefer: Produce markets reset as capacity loosens

▼ Reefer loads: 542,704, down 10% week over week

▼ Reefer equipment: 36,498, down 7%

▼ Linehaul rate: $2.38 per mile, down 3 cents

▼ Load-to-truck ratio: 14.9, down from 15.3

Flatbed: Upward trajectory

▲ Flatbed loads: 1.49 million, up 4% week over week

▲ Flatbed equipment: 21,017, up 1%

▲ Linehaul rate: $2.33 per mile, up 4 cents

▲ Load-to-truck ratio: 70.3, up from 68.9

Market analysis from Dean Croke, Industry Analyst, DAT Freight & Analytics

Flatbed demand continued to press higher. At $2.33 per mile, last week’s national average spot linehaul rate for flatbed freight was 29 cents higher year over year and 16 cents higher than Week 10 in 2018, when flatbed equipment was in high demand. Flatbed load posts were nearly 47% higher year over year.

The produce reefer market just hit a reset. For the first time in weeks, the USDA Specialty Crops National Truck Rate Report is showing “Adequate” refrigerated truck availability in all 11 geographic regions. The capacity tightness that defined California, Florida, and South Texas over the past month has fully unwound. Florida outbound continued to a four-week pattern of spot-rate declines, Nogales flipped higher on key lanes, South Texas firmed modestly, and California settled into a holding pattern.

Florida’s weather-damaged crop supply continues to shrink the available reefer load pool faster than capacity can tighten. The Lakeland to Atlanta lane at $1,050–$1,250 is remarkably soft but still paying carriers around $100 per load more than a year ago based on DAT 7-day rolling average rates. For context, this lane was $2,100–$2,300 just four weeks ago.

Despite declining 8% week over week, dry van load post volumes were 53% higher than the same period last year and nearly double the 10-year average (excluding the pandemic years of 2021 and 2022).

With diesel pushing $5 a gallon, it’s worth noting that, unlike most loads moving under contract, there is no separate fuel surcharge on a spot rate. Carriers and brokers negotiate a single all-in rate per mile, and because spot loads are booked close to the pickup date, that rate is expected to already reflect current diesel prices.