Fitch Ratings revises global shipping outlook to neutral on war-led tanker rate surge

Fitch Ratings has revised its 2026 outlook for the global shipping sector to 'neutral' from 'deteriorating', reflecting a war-driven increase in demand for alternative suppliers and routes, primarily for oil and oil products. This has led to higher ton-mile demand and a sharp increase tanker shipping rates.

Container shipping has also benefitted moderately from higher rates, although this will only reduce the scale of the decline in the industry's 2026 profits that we had expected before the Iran conflict. Unrelated to the war, dry bulk shipping is also likely to benefit in 2026 from higher demand and, consequently, increased rates, primarily for Capesize vessels.

Supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions have become dominant drivers of shipping profitability in recent years, starting with Covid-driven port congestions in container shipping, followed by the Ukraine war that affected tankers, the Red Sea disruption for container shipping, and now the Iran war. However, uncertainty and material risks remain for the market beyond 2026 due to the potential rate normalization and overcapacity in container shipping.

The Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will help increase profits in the tanker sub-segment. Over 20% of global seaborne oil transited through the strait before the conflict. The resulting shortfall is partially covered by the release of oil reserves, the use of bypass pipelines and supply growth.

However, importers are also sourcing oil and oil products from alternative suppliers such as the US, Brazil and West Africa, leading to an increase in ton-mile demand for tankers. As a result, charter rates for tankers, particularly for very large crude carriers, have increased significantly. This is likely to be a short-term benefit for tanker shipping for the remainder of 2026, based on Fitch's base-case assumption for the strait to reopen around end-July.

Spot container shipping freight rates have more than doubled from pre-war levels. Higher freight rates will increase container shipping revenue in 2026 compared with the pre-war period, but earnings will rise less because rates include war-related surcharges, such as fuel costs, war-risk and port congestion.

Our expectations for container shipping demand growth in 2026 are broadly unchanged at close to 2% yoy, albeit with greater uncertainty, as the Middle East accounts for only a low- to mid-single-digit percentage of global container volumes. Demand beyond 2026 will depend on how long oil supply transit through the strait is disrupted and, consequently, on global inflation and other macroeconomic factors.

Fitch forecasts global GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027 and assumes the average oil price will fall to USD65/barrel in 2027 from USD87/barrel in 2026. We expect container shipping supply to grow by close to 5% yoy in 2026 due to new deliveries, but the orderbook, at more than 35% of existing fleet capacity, implies that supply is likely to exceed demand over the next few years. A full resumption of traffic through the Suez Canal would further release effective capacity, increasing oversupply and putting pressure on rates.

The dry bulk segment is the least affected by the war, in our view, although increased seaborne transport of major bulk commodities, mainly iron ore, in 2026 is benefitting Capesize vessel rates. The Middle East represents only about 3% of global bulk trade, although the strait closure has a large impact on outbound fertilizer exports, which represent more than 30% of global seaborne supply. Capesize vessels have very limited exposure to the Arabian Gulf. The longer-term impact of the war on bulk vessels remains somewhat uncertain. However, any shift in consumption towards higher coal imports to mitigate oil supply disruptions would be positive for bulk shipping.