Fitch Ratings revises global airports outlook to ‘deteriorating’ on Iran war disruption

The revision of the global airport sector outlook to ‘deteriorating’ from ‘neutral’ reflects a more challenging operating environment due to the Iran conflict disruption, Fitch Ratings says. This is leading to softer 2026 economic growth expectations, a less favourable traffic mix and lower non-aviation revenue, thereby increasing risks for airport operators.

The Iran war has increased uncertainty about regional airspace availability, airline operations and travel demand. These developments are affecting traffic visibility and route stability, particularly for airports with exposure to transfer passengers, long-haul traffic and internationally connected airline networks. This is despite the traffic and earnings of most operators being broadly stable this year. Some APAC airports have benefitted from the redistribution of transit and long-haul traffic from disrupted Gulf hubs, while resilient intra-regional air travel has also provided support. However, higher airfares and fuel surcharges could weigh on short-term demand.

The ‘deteriorating’ outlook also reflects a reduction in the sector’s growth prospects. Global airport traffic growth was strong in 2025 and early 2026, but the pace had started to slow from the post-pandemic recovery period. IATA’s latest industry outlook projects passenger traffic growth of 4.9% in 2026, indicating a deceleration from 2025, with monthly data for early 2026 showing slower traffic growth.

Airport operators are facing more volatile operating conditions, including shifting airline capacity decisions, rerouting risk and weaker visibility on international demand. We expect a low single-digit decline in nominal terms in retail revenue for European airport operators this year, a business line that contributes about half of their free cash flow. Additionally, there is rising uncertainty about jet fuel availability, particularly in Europe, where disruption to Middle East supply has increased the risk of higher airline costs, capacity reductions and broader operational pressure. While we expect fuel reserves to cover the summer months in Europe even if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, aviation operations during the winter season may be more challenging if the closure continues.

APAC airlines’ higher exposure to spot jet fuel prices, compounded by longer rerouted flight paths, is already leading to signs of cancellations, including on historically resilient short-haul routes. Tighter jet fuel availability, driven by restrictions from key exporters, such as China and Korea, has further contributed to route rationalisation across several ASEAN markets.

Fitch expects performance to become more uneven across issuers. Airports like Barcelona or Venice with leisure intra-region point-to-point traffic, diversified airline bases and lower reliance on transfer or long-haul flows are likely to be better positioned to absorb disruption. By contrast, airports with greater exposure to hub connectivity and affected international corridors, such as Heathrow and those in Paris, could face weaker traffic performance and softer non-aeronautical revenue generation.

The direct implications of the Iran conflict are most evident in EMEA and APAC, where airspace restrictions and reliance on regional transit flows are greatest. A prolonged or broader disruption could also increasingly affect airports in North America and Latin America through weaker long-haul demand, airline network adjustments and wider spillovers into global travel patterns.

The ‘deteriorating’ outlook indicates that credit conditions for the sector are likely to weaken over the next 12 to 18 months. Although the sector remains supported by operations resilience, the balance of risks has shifted to the downside.