February 2025 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) up 0.9% from the previous month

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.9% in February from January, rising after a one-month decline, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From February 2024 to February 2025 the index rose 0.9%.

The level of for-hire freight shipments in February measured by the Freight TSI (137.9) was 2.0% below the all-time high of 140.7 reached in August 2019. BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.

The January index was revised to 136.7 from 137.1 in last month's release. Revisions in this month’s release include an annual update of the weights used in creating the TSI.

BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for February next month, because of the difficulty in estimating air passenger travel. Air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Air freight for February is a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a small part of the freight index, BTS releases the freight TSI with the air freight estimate in every release.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in February due to seasonally adjusted increases in air freight, rail carload, pipeline and trucking, while water decreased, and rail intermodal was unchanged.

The February increase came in the context of mixed but generally positive results in other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index was up 0.7% in February, reflecting an increase of 0.9% in manufacturing and 2.8% in mining, while utilities was down 2.5%. Housing starts were up 11.2% and Personal Income increased by 0.8%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index fell 0.6 percentage points to 50.3 indicating slowing growth. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Although the February Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel, the January index is now being released. The index declined by 1.3% from January to February. Seasonally adjusted air passenger, rail passenger, and transit were all down.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for forty-five months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 59th consecutive month.

Trend: The February freight index increase was the third increase in six months leaving the index 1.2% below its level in August 2024. The index increased 4.5% since August 2021. The February Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 11.4%; the index increased month-over-month in 34 of the 58 months since that low.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in February 2025 (137.9) were 45.3% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (94.9). The February 2025 level was 2.0% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2019 (140.7) (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 0.5% in February compared to the end of 2024.

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 2.1% in the five years from February 2020 and are up 13.2% in the 10 years from February 2015.

Same month of previous year: February 2025 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.9% from February 2024.

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the March 2025 index is scheduled for May 15, 2025.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes.