[FBX Weekly] Shippers brace for GRIs as new congestion builds in Yantian

Today, Nippon Cargo Airlines launched on WebCargo, bringing nearly a quarter of global airline capacity online - more than double what is was at the same time last year - with eBookings up by 20X.

Key insights:

1. Asia-N. Europe ocean rates spiked 15% and $500 past the $10,000/FEU mark this week, as shippers also brace for early-month General Rate Increases that could push prices up on all major lanes.
2. Disruptions due to a COVID outbreak at the Port of Yantian outside Shenzhen is the latest example of demand and corona infections combining to cause port congestion – a major driver of extreme rates during the past year.

China-US rates:
• Asia-US West Coast prices (FBX01 Daily) increased 2% to $5,494/FEU. This rate is 236% higher than the same time last year.
• Asia-US East Coast prices (FBX03 Daily) also climbed 2% to $7,479/FEU, and are 190% higher than rates for this week last year.

Analysis:

Aside from another jump in Asia-N. Europe ocean rates, which spiked 15% and $500 past the $10,000/FEU mark this week, prices stayed level on most major lanes. But shippers are bracing for early-month General Rate Increases, and demand and capacity constraints have added transatlantic shippers to the list of those often adding hefty premiums on top of elevated rates to secure space.

Rates keep climbing not only because demand and volumes have continued to stay at peak levels, but also because of the delays that those volumes have caused, which in turn reduce capacity by tying up ships and containers.

A recent analysis shows that so far this year carriers have cancelled the same percentage of Asia-US West Coast sailings due to delays as they did last year because of plummeting demand during the first months of the pandemic.