Hormuz traffic falls 59% as renewed escalation drives vessel avoidance

Latest AIS-derived and verified figures suggest that this initial rerouting response has developed into broader traffic avoidance following renewed US strikes on 11 July and further attacks on commercial vessels.

Average daily crossings have dropped from over 34 vessels on 1–7 July down to:

• 29.5 vessels on 8–9 July

• 18 vessels on 10–11 July

• 14 vessels on 12–16 July

During 1–7 July:
• 45% of crossings used the Iranian corridor
• 34% used the Omani corridor
• 21% could not be conclusively assigned

On 8–9 July, the Iranian share jumped to 70%, while confirmed use of the Omani corridor fell to just 9%.

The initial shock seemed to wear off as for 10–11 July, there were 36 crossings in total:
• 18 used the Iranian corridor: 50%
• 7 used the Omani corridor: 19%
• 11 were undetermined: 31%

Following renewed US strikes and further attacks on commercial shipping, the split for 12–16 July stands at:
• 63% Iranian corridor
• 10% Omani corridor
• 27% undetermined

Undetermined crossings include vessels transiting dark, as well as cases where AIS spoofing affected signal coverage over the Strait.

Dark transits also rose from 37% during 1–7 July to 48% on 8–9 July, peaking at 53% on 10–11 July. They remained elevated at 44% during 12–16 July, alongside the sharp decline in total traffic.

Compared with the first week of July, overall traffic during 12–16 July is down 59%, while daily deadweight capacity crossing the Strait in either direction declined by 68%.