European truck shares fall on US electric vehicle rule reversal

Shares in European truck makers fell on Thursday after the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it would move to reverse the Biden administration's vehicle emissions rules.

European truck makers' sales slowed last year from a record 2023. However, analysts said fleet firms had been expected to "pre-buy" trucks in the second half of this year and 2026 before the emissions rules took effect, but that was now unlikely.

"Given the EPA's latest comments, the market likely assumes the tighter regulations will be reversed, meaning there is no longer an expectation of a pre-purchase surge," Pal Skirta, an analyst at German broker Metzler, told Reuters.

Skirta, as well as a Daimler Truck spokesperson, told Reuters this was the main reason behind the drop in share prices.

Daimler Truck was the biggest faller, down 5% and the worst performer on Germany's blue-chip index.

"Our top management will elaborate in more detail on the subject tomorrow during our annual results conference," the spokesperson said.

Arne Rautenberg, a fund manager at Union Investment which owns shares in Daimler, told Reuters the rollback would limit the expected buying cycle and therefore reduce expectations, at least for 2025.

"This announcement is bad news not just from an ESG perspective but also from a fundamental perspective," he said.

The EPA is also reconsidering a 2022 regulation that aims to drastically cut smog- and soot-forming emissions from heavy-duty trucks, saying the rule makes trucks more expensive.

The United States is the most important market for Daimler, which has invested heavily in emission-free drive systems with a view to climate protection goals and corresponding regulations.

Its Swedish rival Volvo Group considers North America its second largest market, accounting for over 30% of net sales.

Shares of Volvo and Germany's Traton, a Volkswagen subsidiary, were down around 3% by 1233 GMT.

A Volvo spokesperson declined to comment on either the potential regulation change or the effect on demand, calling both speculation for now, but said it was following the political process.

"It is normally much cheaper to produce in a demand-driven economy rather than a politically-driven economy," the spokesperson added.