Europe Issues Gloomier Projections of Its Trade Slump With World

The European Union said its trade with the rest of the world would slump this year by as much as 868 billion euros ($963 billion), or more than 10%, in a gloomier updated forecast that offers fresh evidence of the global economic damage caused by the coronavirus.

EU exports of goods and services will fall by 282 billion euros to 470 billion euros, or 9% to 15%, while imports of both will decline by 313 billion euros to 398 billion euros, or 11% to 14%, the European Commission said on Friday.

The new forecast is based on a projection by the commission, the 27-nation EU’s executive arm in Brussels, that global trade will drop 10% to 16% this year. The World Trade Organization predicted in early April that global merchandise commerce would decline as much as 32% this year.

In an initial projection in mid-April of the pandemic’s impact, the commission said the bloc’s trade with the rest of the world would fall by 525 billion euros this year. That outlook foresaw EU exports of goods and services dropping 9.2% and imports declining 8.8%.