EIA updates forecast amid continued Mideast disruption

The U.S. Energy Information Administration published its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, reflecting a continued disruption to Middle Eastern oil flows.

On Wednesday, May 13, EIA will release a new energy security dataset, which will be published quarterly, with information on global strategic petroleum reserves and flows through key shipping chokepoints for petroleum and liquefied natural gas (LNG). This new dataset will typically be published separately from the primary STEO release, based on the availability of underlying datasets necessary for the analysis.

"The timing of resumed oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the subsequent rate at which Middle Eastern producers restore output are key factors influencing EIA's price forecast through year end," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said. "Our new datasets tracking global strategic stocks and shipping chokepoints for petroleum and gas markets will offer timely context and additional depth."

Key takeaways from the May STEO are below.

• OPEC. The UAE left OPEC on May 1, 2026. Beginning with this STEO, UAE production figures will no longer be included in OPEC totals for historical or forecast periods in this outlook.
• Global oil production. An estimated 10.5 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil production from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain were collectively shut in last month. EIA’s forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed through late May, with traffic gradually resuming in June and shipments returning to pre-conflict levels later in the year.
• Crude oil price forecast. Brent crude oil spot prices rose in April, reaching $138 per barrel (b) on April 7 and averaging $117/b for the month on the back of reduced global oil supplies. EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26), keeping Brent near $106/b in May and June.
• Retail gasoline and diesel prices. Retail gasoline prices are forecast to average $3.88 per gallon (gal) in 2026 and $3.62/gal in 2027.
• Propane inventories. U.S. propane inventories reached record highs in 2025 and are expected to stay above average through 2026 as supply growth outpaces demand. U.S. propane exports will likely increase through 2027, partly as buyers in Asia replace supply from the Middle East.
• LNG exports. U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity increased by about 0.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in April as capacity expanded.
• Natural gas production. U.S. marketed natural gas production averaged 120.2 Bcf/d in 1Q26, up 4% more than the same period last year. Output is expected to keep rising through 2027, supported by associated gas linked to high crude oil prices.
• Electricity consumption. U.S. electricity consumption is forecast to grow by 3.1% in 2027. This growth is primarily driven by the commercial sector, which is anticipated to surpass residential electricity consumption for the first time on record in 2027. Industrial demand is also growing, although at a slower pace.
• Electricity prices and generation. EIA expects residential electricity prices to rise by 5% in 2026 and continue increasing at a slower rate in 2027, with the most significant price hikes expected along the East Coast.

The full May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook is available on the EIA website.