EIA expects oil prices to be under pressure from oversupply in 2025, 2026

Oil prices will be under pressure in 2025 and 2026 as global production growth outpaces demand, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday in its Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Many analysts expect an oversupplied oil market this year, after demand growth slowed sharply in 2024 in the top consuming nations: the U.S. and China.

The EIA said it expects Brent crude oil prices to fall 8% to average $74 a barrel in 2025, then fall further to $66 a barrel in 2026.

The EIA slightly lifted its estimate for record U.S. oil production this year, to 13.55 million barrels per day, from its prior estimate of 13.52 million bpd.

Global oil and liquid fuel production is now expected to average 104.4 million bpd in 2025, up from the prior forecast of 104.2 million bpd, the EIA said.

Global demand, meanwhile, is expected to average 104.1 million bpd, down from the prior estimate of 104.3 million bpd, the EIA said.