Delta expects higher profit as strong travel demand carries into summer

Delta Air Lines Inc. modestly boosted its 2023 earnings expectations as it capitalizes on a recovery in travel demand even as free cash flow remains below pre-pandemic levels.

Adjusted profit for the year will be at the high end of its prior guidance of $5 to $6 a share, Delta said in a regulatory filing Tuesday ahead of an investor presentation. The carrier was expected to earn $5.81 a share, the average from estimates compiled by Bloomberg. 

International travel has expanded rapidly this year as most countries have dropped the last vestiges of pandemic restrictions, helping to boost revenue for carriers. Domestic demand has remained strong in the face of inflation and economic uncertainty, though it has begun to moderate. The industry expects summer travel to challenge the record traffic levels of pre-pandemic 2019.

Delta predicted a record summer for overseas travel and cited “robust consumer demand with corporate steady.”

Still, shareholders weren’t blown away by the revised profit guidance. Investors likely were anticipating at least a 50-cent increase in the airline’s 2023 earnings guide, Raymond James analyst Savanthi Syth wrote in a note Tuesday.

Delta’s shares rose 1.2% at 9:31 a.m. in New York. The stock surged 31% this year through Monday, the second-best performance in a Standard & Poor’s index of the five largest US carriers.

Cash Recovery

Delta now anticipates free cash flow this year of $3 billion, compared with a prior expectation of more than $2 billion. It also sees operating margin approaching the top end of a range of 10% to 12%. 

The carrier reaffirmed its 2024 financial targets, including earnings of more than $7 a share and free cash flow above $4 billion. That would bring the cash figure closer to pre-pandemic levels, after it hit $4.3 billion in 2019.

With the second quarter coming to an end, Delta raised its forecast range for per-share earnings by 25 cents to as much as $2.50. That compares with an average estimate from analysts of $2.21.

While costs have been high, airlines have gotten a break on fuel, including a 52% drop in spot prices in New York harbor from the same quarter in 2022. Fuel and labor are typically the top expenses for carriers.