CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor shows retail sales grew again in August as inflation eased

Retail sales increased again in August as consumer demand and easing inflation overcame slower job growth, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, released today by the National Retail Federation.

“Retail sales data shows that consumers continued to spend on household priorities in August,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “This is despite a slowing labor market that is expected to prompt the Fed to finally lower interest rates in September. Even with slower employment growth, unemployment is near historical lows and ongoing job and wage gains coupled with lower inflation should keep consumers on solid footing heading into the holiday season. Lower interest rates take time to trickle down and won’t provide an immediate boost but should stabilize the economy.”
Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, were up 0.45% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.11% unadjusted year over year in August, according to the Retail Monitor. That compared with increases of 0.74% month over month and 0.92% year over year in July.

The Retail Monitor calculation of core retail sales (excluding restaurants in addition to automobiles and gasoline) was up 0.17% month over month in August and up 1.93% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.95% month over month and 1.69% year over year in July.

Total sales were up 2.08% year over year for the first eight months of the year and core sales were up 2.33%.

Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

August sales were up in five out of nine retail categories on a yearly basis, led by online sales, clothing and accessories stores and health and personal care stores. Sales were also up in five categories on a monthly basis. Specifics from key sectors include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 1.49% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 17.03% year over year unadjusted.
• Clothing and accessories stores were up 2.13% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 11.44% year over year unadjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 0.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 6.69% year over year unadjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 0.86% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 2.53% year over year unadjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 0.28% month over month seasonally adjusted and up 1.94% year over year unadjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were down 0.95% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 2.54% year over year unadjusted.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores were down 0.17% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 2.57% year over year unadjusted.
• Building and garden supply stores were down 1.31% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 2.92% year over year unadjusted.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were down 2.89% month over month seasonally adjusted and down 10.78% year over year unadjusted.