China jet fleet to more than double on travel boom, Boeing says

China’s commercial jet fleet will more than double in the next 20 years, putting it on course to be the world’s largest air travel market, according to Boeing Co.

In its Commercial Market Outlook published Tuesday, the US planemaker said China will need 8,830 new aircraft for replacement and growth across the next two decades, including 6,720 narrowbodies such as the 737 Max. 

The figures represent an upgrade on Boeing’s prior 20-year outlook, which pegged Chinese demand at 8,560 commercial aircraft through 2042.

Boeing is betting on a more than doubling of Chinese airline fleets thanks to strong demand for passenger travel and air cargo. The manufacturer forecast China’s passenger traffic will grow 5.9% a year, exceeding the global average of 4.7%.

About 60% of the new deliveries will be for fleet growth, while the rest will replace older jets. As such, China’s commercial fleet will more than double to 9,740 planes over the next 20 years, Boeing said. China will also have the world’s largest widebody fleet.

Boeing continues to face challenges in its most important export market for commercial jet sales. The US planemaker remains frozen out of deals for plane purchases, which has lasted several years, and deliveries of existing orders have been at times held up by regulatory scrutiny.

As China’s existing fleet gradually ages, the prospects of a large Boeing order appears more remote against strained US-China geopolitical tensions. The frosty diplomatic relationship has paved the way for domestic manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corp of China Ltd. to win hundreds of single-aisle jet orders that would otherwise be won by the American planemaker.