Census retail sales data for July shows increased spending despite strong-but-moderating economic growth

Retail sales data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau shows consumers continued to increase their spending in July even as growth of the economy is moderating, National Retail Federation Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz said.

“July’s retail sale figures mirror the strength in the economy, which continues to expand even though there are pressures on growth,” Kleinhenz said. “The midsummer boost from back-to-school and college spending along with special deal days offered by retailers clearly helped. Households are proceeding with measured spending and getting the benefit of falling retail prices despite still-elevated prices for services. Even with growth of the labor force cooling, consumer spending remains the backbone of the economy and is keeping the expansion on a positive path. We are all waiting to see what direction the Fed will take with interest rates.”

The Census Bureau said overall retail sales in July were up 1% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 2.7% unadjusted year over year. That compared with a decrease of 0.2% month over month and an increase of 2% year over year in June.

July’s core retail sales as defined by NRF — based on the Census data but excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants — were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted month over month and up 5.2% unadjusted year over year. Core retail sales were up 3.4% year-over-year for the first seven months of the year, in line with NRF’s forecast for 2024 retail sales to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.

Last week, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, powered by Affinity Solutions, reported that core retail sales were up 0.95% seasonally adjusted month over month in July and up 1.69% year over year. That compared with increases of 0.3% month over month and 3.07% year over year in June. Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not need to be revised monthly or annually.

As the leading authority and voice for the retail industry, NRF provides data on retail sales each month and also forecasts annual retail sales and spending for key periods such as the holiday season each year.