Cass Transportation Report Indexes - December 2024

Cass Freight Index® - Shipments

The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® declined 7.3% m/m in December, over half of which was seasonal.

In seasonally adjusted (SA) terms, the index fell 3.1% m/m, reversing the 2.8% gain in November.

On a y/y basis, shipments declined by 6.5% in December, the largest decline since January 2024.

Ongoing capacity additions are keeping pressure on the for-hire market, and the normal seasonal pattern would have the index down about 6% y/y in January.

After rising 13% in 2021 and 0.6% in 2022, the index declined 5.5% in 2023 and another 4.1% in 2024.

Cass Freight Index - Expenditures

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, which measures the total amount spent on freight, fell 2.6% m/m in December. The y/y decline moderated to 3.4% from 3.8% in November.

The decline was from shipments, which fell 7.3% m/m, and we infer rates rose 5.1% m/m in December in the fourth straight price increase.

In SA terms, the index rose 0.5% m/m, with shipments down 3.1% and rates up 3.7%.

This index includes changes in fuel, modal mix, intramodal mix, and accessorial charges, so is a bit more volatile than the cleaner Cass Truckload Linehaul Index®.

The expenditures component of the Cass Freight Index, after a record 38% surge in 2021 and another 23% increase in 2022, fell 19% in 2023 and 11% in 2024.

Inferred Freight Rates

The rates embedded in the two components of the Cass Freight Index rose 5.1% m/m in December, and 3.7% in SA terms.

On a y/y basis, Cass Inferred Freight Rates turned positive, up 3.3% y/y in December, after a 3.1% y/y decline in November, in the first increase in two years.

After a 14% decline in 2023, freight rates broadly fell 7% in 2024, including a few points of fuel savings.

Based on the normal seasonal pattern, this index will remain positive y/y in January and is headed for gains in 2025.

Cass Inferred Freight Rates are a simple calculation of the Cass Freight Index data—expenditures divided by shipments—producing a data set that explains the overall movement in cost per shipment. The data set is diversified among all modes, with truckload (TL) representing more than half of the dollars, followed by less-than-truckload (LTL), rail, parcel, and so on.

Truckload Linehaul Index

The Cass Truckload Linehaul Index rose 1.2% m/m in December, the fourth straight small increase from a cycle low in August.

The y/y decline narrowed to 0.4% in December from 1.1% in November. This index is now on the verge of turning positive y/y for the first time in two years, possibly in January.

As a broad truckload market indicator, this index includes both spot and contract freight. Spot rates have been in positive y/y territory for about six months, and even contract rates are increasing in recent bid activity.

This index fell 10% in 2023, and another 3% in 2024. Where it will go in 2025 is a big question.

Freight Expectations

Winter weather is driving significant spot activity in January, but the supply response in the past couple of months has been interesting. While lower Class 8 supply over the past several months supports a return to rate increases in 2025, the capacity additions to come will be considerable.

ACT Research presents its outlook through 2026 in the ACT Research Freight Forecast. This service provides in-depth analysis and forecasts for a broad range of U.S. freight measures, including the Cass Freight Index, Cass Truckload Linehaul Index, DAT spot and contract rates by trailer type, LTL, and intermodal price indexes. We provide monthly, quarterly, and annual predictions for over forty data series over a two- to three-year time horizon, including capacity, volumes, and rates. The ACT Research Freight Forecast is released monthly in conjunction with the Cass Transportation Index report.

How have ACT Research’s freight forecasts performed? ACT Research’s 2024 forecasts for the Cass Truckload Linehaul Index® were 98.8% accurate on average over the past 18 months, and were spot on from 13 months out.

(As a reminder, ACT Research’s Tim Denoyer writes this report.)

For 2024, ACT’s forecasts for the shipments component of the Cass Freight Index were 95.0% accurate on average for the 18-month forecast period.