Johnson seeks Brexit breakthrough at dinner in Brussels

Boris Johnson is heading into what may be the most important meal of his life: a dinner with the head of the European Commission in Brussels that could make or break a post-Brexit trade deal.

After eight months of negotiations broke up without agreement, the U.K. prime minister will seek to inject political momentum into the process at a meeting with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and top officials from both sides on Wednesday evening.

Johnson’s team hopes the face-to-face conversation over food and drinks will provide an atmosphere in which the two leaders can break the impasse. But talks are still deadlocked over the same issues—fishing rights, the governance of a deal, and fair competition rules for businesses.

The pound rose against a weak dollar but option traders are now more pessimistic about sterling than at any time since the Brexit referendum in 2016.

Divergence

The scale of the gap that still needs to be bridged on the so-called level playing field for businesses was laid bare on Wednesday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said managing how the two sides’ rules diverge over time will be key to any deal.

“We must not only have a level playing field for today, but also for tomorrow and the day after tomorrow,” Merkel said. “And for that, we will need agreements—how one side can react if the other side changes its conditions.”

Three hours later, Johnson hit back.

“Our friends in the EU are currently insisting that if they pass a new law in the future with which we in this country do not comply or don’t follow suit, then they want the automatic right to punish us and to retaliate,” the prime minister told Parliament in London. “They’re saying we should be the only country in the world not to have sovereign control over its fishing waters. I don’t believe that those are terms any prime minister of this country should accept.”

Dinner Talks

Even so, Johnson and his team believe a good deal can be struck and that the dinner meeting offers the best chance to make headway. The two chief negotiators—Michel Barnier for the EU and Britain’s David Frost—will also be at the meal and could return to the negotiating table in the coming days if there’s the possibility of agreement.

Johnson and von der Leyen get on well and in the past the prime minister has found one-to-one talks to be the best way to break through difficulties, as when he struck a compromise with Ireland’s Leo Varadkar on the separation phase of Brexit.

Even so, this time pessimism remains. On the EU side, member states are preparing for no deal, an outcome that would disrupt trade from Jan. 1, while British officials are urging company bosses to get ready for changes to border processes even if a trade agreement is struck.

According to Micheal Martin, Ireland’s prime minister, the chances of a deal are no better than 50-50. Wednesday’s dinner talks between Johnson and von der Leyen is now a rescue mission. “We’re on the precipice of no deal,” he said.