Boeing Starliner space capsule faces a shaky commercial future

Boeing Co,’s space taxi is finally about to carry its first astronauts to orbit, after years of delays and a botched test flight.

Its space capsule, the CST-100 Starliner, is scheduled to head to the International Space Station on a United Launch Alliance Atlas V rocket May 6. It will carry two NASA astronauts, making it the first crewed flight for the vehicle and ULA’s first launch with humans on board.

The launch will be a closely watched test of quality control at Boeing, whose 737 Max models have been linked to some of the worst aircraft safety and design failures in recent aviation history.

But even if Starliner performs flawlessly, it will be difficult to proclaim the program a success since it may only fly a half dozen more missions for NASA and never do much else.

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Boeing started developing Starliner in 2014 for NASA’s Commercial Crew program, designed to create new spacecraft to take astronauts to the ISS after the Space Shuttle program was canceled.

NASA originally offered contracts worth up to $6.8 billion to Boeing and Elon Musk’s SpaceX to fly astronauts to the space station. The manufacturers could then use their spacecraft to generate additional profits from other customers, like space tourists.

Since debuting its Crew Dragon capsule, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, has flown nine crewed flights for NASA, and has had four flights with private astronauts, with more planned this year.

Meanwhile, setbacks delayed Boeing’s first flight with people by roughly seven years and racked up around $1.5 billion in extra costs, Boeing’s earnings reports show. And now that Starliner is finally ready, it may be too late. If the ISS is retired by 2030 as planned, Boeing will, at most, only fly six more missions for NASA.

Recently, Boeing has been downplaying Starliner’s commercial outlook. “Right now, the focus is on the six missions that we have on contract with NASA,” Mark Nappi, Boeing vice president and Starliner program manager, said at a news conference in March. “The private astronaut missions are of an interest later in the decade.”

Boeing could find it difficult to fund a commercial space project in the near future. The company had a cash outflow of $3.9 billion in the first quarter of this year as it worked to fix the 737 Max plane’s manufacturing shortcomings.

A Boeing spokesperson says that “Starliner remains a priority.” The company “has made significant investments in the program, and we will continue to fulfill our contractual obligations.”

Another hurdle to Starliner’s commercial prospects is that Boeing has hired the NASA’s flight operations team to help with the upcoming launch. This is in stark contrast with SpaceX, which has its own flight control team ready to fly Crew Dragon whenever needed.

The Boeing spokesperson said there were no immediate plans to change its working model, since the NASA partnership is “valuable in fostering collaboration across the organizations.”

It’s possible that Boeing could strike future deals for Starliner trips into low Earth orbit. Yet at the moment, though it was meant to be a commercial space venture, Starliner has seemingly morphed into a project similar to Boeing’s other major programs with NASA, like the Space Launch System or the ISS, where the agency has significant oversight and ownership.

A smooth Starliner launch next week probably won’t be enough to fix the program’s flagging business case.