Boeing sees Chinese airlines buying 8,700 new aircraft by 2040

Boeing Co. expects Chinese airlines will need 8,700 new aircraft for a total of $1.47 trillion by 2040, doubling the country’s commercial fleet size as air travel booms.

China’s demand for wide-body aircraft is likely to account for 20% of global deliveries, according to the U.S. manufacturer’s Commercial Market Outlook. China’s civil aviation industry will also need more than 400,000 new personnel including pilots, cabin crew and technicians by 2040, Boeing said. 

“The rapid recovery of Chinese domestic traffic during the pandemic speaks to the market’s underlying strength and resilience,” Boeing’s China marketing managing director for commercial airplanes, Richard Wynne, said in a statement Thursday. 

“There are promising opportunities to significantly expand international long-haul routes and air freight capacity,” he said. “Longer term, there is the potential for low-cost carrier growth to further build on single-aisle demand.”

Single-aisle jets will account for nearly 6,500 deliveries, while wide-bodies, including for cargo, will total 1,850 and account for 44% of demand by value, according to Boeing, which is still waiting for its 737 Max model to be cleared by Chinese regulators after most major markets approved it to fly again. 

Boeing also predicts that China’s domestic passenger market will exceed intra-European traffic by 2030 and North America by 2040.