Boeing sees 20-year commercial jetliner market almost doubling

Boeing Co. expects the number of jets flying commercially will double over the next two decades, with almost 44,000 aircraft entering the market as the aviation industry weathers factory bottlenecks and other short-term disruptions.

The US planemaker’s annual study shows that the total number of aircraft needed is 3.2% higher than last year’s forecast as air travel surged past pre-pandemic levels. Single-aisle jets are expected to account for about three-quarters of the new deliveries.

But the planes won’t necessarily sport the familiar tube-and-turbofan design that has defined the jet age, particularly those entering the market later in its’ 20-year forecast. 

With investment flowing into greener fuels like hydrogen and open-fan engines, and pressure building to cut aviation emissions, Boeing has been studying various product scenarios, said Darren Hulst, a Boeing vice president of commercial marketing. The company expects the current generation of Boeing and Airbus SE jets to dominate for at least another decade, however.

“I don’t think we see a massive change in technology, but the door would be opened to seeing new products in the network,” Hulst told reporters earlier this week.

Airbus, which released its market forecast on July 15, expects similar growth through 2023. If the planemaker’s are accurate, it would signal remarkable resiliency for an industry prone to market shocks and unforeseen events. Boeing remains stuck in a crisis brought on by a near-catastrophic accident in January, while Airbus has also been forced to pare back its goals because it’s suffering from supply-chain constraints.

Four years after the pandemic crushed the industry, air travel has returned to the long-term trend that Boeing forecast decades ago. It expects passenger traffic to rise an average of 4.7%. The company expects the global freighter fleet to increase by two-thirds by 2043 to support similar growth in air cargo growth.