August 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) up 1.1% from the previous month

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 1.1% in August from July, rising for the first month this quarter, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From August 2023 to August 2024 the index rose 1.0%

The level of for-hire freight shipments in August measured by the Freight TSI (139.9) was 1.1% below the all-time high of 141.5 reached in August 2019. BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000.

The July index was revised to 138.4 from 139.0 in last month's release.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI increased in August due to seasonally adjusted increases in water, rail carload, rail intermodal, trucking, and air freight while pipeline declined.

The August increase came in the context of growth in several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.8% in August, reflecting growth of 0.9% in manufacturing and 0.8% in mining while utilities were unchanged. Housing starts were up 9.6% and Personal Income increased by 0.2%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 0.4 points to 47.2. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Although the August Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the July index is now being released. The index decreased 2.7% from June to July. Seasonally adjusted transit, rail passenger, and air passenger all declined.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-eight months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 53rd consecutive month.

Trend: The August freight index increase was the first since May and the second in four months, leaving the index 3.4% above its level in April 2024. The index increased 5.3% since August 2021. The August Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 12.6%; the index increased month-over-month in 30 of the 52 months since that low.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in August 2024 (139.9) were 47.1% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The August 2024 level was 1.1% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2019 (141.5).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.0% in August compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are down 1.1% in the five years from August 2019 and are up 15.7% in the 10 years from August 2014.

Same month of previous year: August 2024 for-hire freight shipments were up 1.0% from August 2023.

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes.