American Airlines sees strong 2026 profit on premium demand despite storm hit

American Airlines forecast 2026 profit above analysts' expectations on Tuesday, citing stronger demand for premium seats, a rebound in corporate travel and higher loyalty revenue even as a major winter storm is expected to weigh on first-quarter results.

The Texas-based airline said this month's winter storm has already forced more than 9,000 cancellations, the largest weather-related disruption in its history. It estimated the fallout will shave about 1.5 percentage points off first-quarter capacity and cut revenue by $150 million to $200 million.

The sprawling storm gripped over two dozen U.S. states over the weekend, and is expected to result in insured losses ranging from just under $1 billion to the single-digit billions, according to experts.

American CEO Robert Isom told analysts on an earnings call that cancellations are likely to remain unusually high for at least the next two days, with operations returning to normal later in the week.

"The impact of the storm is as significant as we've ever seen at American," Isom said.

The company forecast a first-quarter loss of 10 cents to 50 cents a share, broadly in line with analyst estimates, and said revenue should rise 7% to 10% from a year earlier.

Its shares were down 1.3% in early trading.

The airline said the weather disruption will weigh on near‑term results even as demand improves, with January bookings rising sharply after a softer‑than‑expected finish to 2025. The storm‑related cancellations follow a period in which a prolonged U.S. government shutdown dented fourth‑quarter revenue and contributed to weaker bookings late in the year.

American said "revenue intakes" - cash collected from bookings - rose by double digits in the first three weeks of 2026 from a year earlier, led by premium seats and an improving corporate backdrop.

PREMIUM AND CORPORATE DRIVE THE OUTLOOK

Rivals Delta Air Lines and United Airlines have also pointed to premium and business travelers as their main profit engine, even as demand in the back of the plane has been softer.

With airlines increasingly relying on higher-paying customers for profits, American has ramped up its premium push to close the earnings gap with Delta and United.

The carrier said it expects premium seating to expand faster than its non-premium offering for the rest of the decade, a shift it says should lift unit revenue as demand holds up and more high-end seats enter the fleet.

American said premium unit revenue in the fourth quarter outpaced main-cabin unit revenue by seven percentage points from a year earlier. It also projected its count of lie-flat seats will rise by more than 50% by 2030.

REBUILDING BUSINESS-TRAVEL CHANNELS

American has been trying to win back business travelers after changes to how it sold tickets strained ties with some travel agencies and corporate customers and hurt revenue.

The airline said it has rebuilt those relationships and, by the end of 2025, had recovered its usual share of ticket sales that come through travel agencies and other third-party sellers. It is now targeting further gains in 2026 as it upgrades its fare products and improves its sales tools and processes.  

American forecast full-year 2026 adjusted profit of $1.70 to $2.70 per share. The midpoint of $2.20 is above analysts' average estimate of $1.97, according to LSEG data.

Fourth-quarter adjusted profit was 16 cents per share, missing analysts' estimates of 34 cents. The airline said revenue took a roughly $325 million hit from the government shutdown.