Airbus predicts Asia to lead air traffic boom in coming decades

Airbus SE predicted aircraft manufacturers will deliver 40,850 new jets over the next two decades as customers particularly in Asia expand their fleets and replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient models.

The plane manufacturer expects the global installed fleet to more than double through 2042 to 46,560 aircraft, with 23,680 planes representing growth and 17,170 going toward replacement of older jets, it said in its latest Global Market Forecast. About 80% of the new deliveries will be narrowbodies such as the A320neo and Boeing Co.’s 737 Max, and the bulk of the expansion with come from China and the rest of Asia, Airbus said.

The aviation industry has seen demand surge from a virtual shutdown at the height of the pandemic. Capacity on domestic routes in May 2023 was higher than 2019 while international traffic is back to 89% of pre-pandemic levels, the planemaker said. Airbus’s forecast comes a day after jet lessor Avolon Holdings Ltd made a similar prediction, highlighting the industry’s confidence that it has returned to its growth path. 

Avolon expects Airbus to expand its lead in narrowbody jet manufacturing, the biggest segment of the commercial aircraft market, over the next two decades, while US rival Boeing will maintain its dominance in widebody sales. 

Airbus said China alone will have 9,440 aircraft by 2042, of which 85% will be narrowbodies. The country is developing its own single-aisle airliner, the Comac C919, as it seeks to break into the lucrative duopoly for such jets now held by Airbus and Boeing. 

The highest proportion of widebody fleets regionally will remain in the Middle East, Airbus predicted. Already today, airlines like Emirates or Qatar Airways run massive long-range fleets that connect their hubs with airports around the world.