Posidonia 2026: Tanker market might be surprised by EV expansion

The optimistic expectations of global tanker owners could be in for a surprise if nations decide they cannot tolerate a long-term increase in high fuel prices and move transportation assets over to electric vehicles, according to Pankaj Khanna, CEO of Heldmar Maritime Holdings.

Khanna was speaking at the Capital Links “Tanker Markets in Motion” conference that took place on June 1 at the start of the Posidonia Maritime Exhibition taking place in Greece.

Khanna said that he had recently visited Indonesia and was surprised to find that as a result of oil supply shortages and higher gasoline prices caused by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz, projections for an increase in oil shipments by tanker owners may not go up as expected.

Khanna said the reason was plans to increase investment by Indonesia in electric vehicles that could blunt future tanker shipments and oil sales:

“I think the big risk that we face is demand disruption. And I don’t think anybody’s paying attention because everybody expects today, tomorrow and the day after that the (oil producing) states will open up.”

Indonesian Move to Electric?

Khanna cited his trip to Indonesia where he said there was a move to switch to electric-powered motorbikes: “I was in Indonesia a couple of weeks ago. They currently consume 1.7 million barrels per day. The forecast is by 2030; they go to 2 million barrels per day. But because of the current crisis, they are considering (EV) changing for all their motorbikes, which is the main source of consumption for oil.”

The result could be a plateauing of demand for oil and tankers: “If they go ahead with that and they're successful, that means that their demand will not grow to 2 million barrels per day but will then stall at 1.6 million to 1.7 million barrels per day. That's a loss … per day from just one very important critical market.”

The switch to electrification of motorbikes could be considerable: That's 280 million people changing their behavior because of shortages of fuel and also because of the price of fuel. “

The result could impact the demand for fossil fuels and tankers as a result of supply disruptions caused by the US war with Iran: “So if the (oil) states don't open up and this keeps going … on the way it is right now, we will see real demand disruptions, which is not good for the (tanker) market.”

At the same time, the situation in Indonesia is playing out in the context of a broader push by China to sell more electric vehicles to Southeast Asia and supplant the long- term dominance of Japanese carmakers selling gasoline-powered vehicles.

At a Posidonia event, an oil company executive based in Singapore told AJOT that the sale of electric vehicles in Singapore and in Southeast Asia is accelerating as consumers opt for low-cost Chinese EVs built by BYD and others in response to higher gasoline prices caused by supply shortages. The Chinese battery-powered cars are affordable and have a range of over 300 miles, obviating the need to ever go back to the gas station, he said.

So, if Khanna is right, the oil tanker market might be in for a surprise economic impact of a plateauing of demand inspired by the oil supply disruptions caused by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.