POLB’s Cordero: “Worst scenarios have not occurred”

In spite of concerns about the impact of Trump administration tariffs on volumes at US ports, “the worst scenarios have not occurred,” in 2025, according to Port of Long Beach Executive Director, Mario Cordero.

Cordero was speaking at a Port of Long Beach media briefing on November 7th where he summarized 2025 by saying: “If we go back to our assessment at the beginning of the year and of course, when Liberation Day (the major Trump tariffs) was announced in April, I think again, it is fair to say that the worst scenarios have not occurred. In fact, for the Port of Long Beach, (for) the first nine months of the year, we were up 6.8%.”

However, in October, the Port of Long Beach did report that it processed 839,671 TEUS which was a decline of 14.9% from October of 2024. The breakdown was as follows:

• Imports were 401,915 TEUs, a decline of 17.6% from October 2024.
• Exports were 99,817 TEUs, a decline of 11.5% from the year before.
• Empty containers were 337,940 TEUs, a decline of 12.6% from the year before.

Cordero said he hopes the Port will equal the record 2024 volumes in 2025. “Now, if we look at the October number, after the first 10 months of 2025, we're still at 4.1% ahead of the last period of last year and far ahead of 2023. And keep in mind, 2024 was our record year for our cargo numbers. After those dire predictions, how did we end up here? Cargo remains steady at the Port of Long Beach … And we are on track to end the year relatively even with the record-setting 9.6 million TEUs that we moved last year,” Cordero said of the performance.

Frontloading of Shipments

The reason Port volumes have remained resilient is because many shippers frontloaded imports in anticipation of higher tariffs: “Retailers and shippers front-loaded cargo, and when they ship goods earlier than normal to avoid the expected fees, they stock warehouses with goods in anticipation of tariffs driving up an 11-month cargo surge through April. Thanks to this surge, the Port of Long Beach was the nation's busiest port through the first four months of 2025. “

Cordero noted some declines in apparel and toy imports in 2025, stating, “Over the past year, the Port of Long Beach moved 98,000 TEUs filled with sweaters, coats, and sweatshirts for those looking to keep warm this winter. However, that was down 52% from this point last year. We have also moved 65,000 TEUS of refrigerators and other kitchen appliances, down 3.2% from last year. One of the hot toys imported from China that's expected to fly off the store shelves this year is Disney's Ultimate Stitch interactive plush doll, inspired by the live-action movie version of Lilo and Stitch released earlier this year. So far this year … along with many other dolls, toys, and games. 62,000 TEUs moved through the Port of Long Beach, but down 2.3% from 2024.”

Fluidity in Truck and Rail Moves

Noel Hacegaba, Chief Operating Officer, Port of Long Beach, then took over the briefing to report that truck and rail dwell times for containers moving off ships via truck and rail each took four days: “A majority of cargo containers are moving out of our Port terminals at the Port of Long Beach in as little as four days. So, drayage efficiency continues to be a strong point for Long Beach. Rail dwell times continue to average four days, which is a good sign of fluidity and means that goods are moving quickly off the docks and getting delivered to the doorsteps and store shelves in time for the Black Friday and … holiday shopping rush.”

Hacegaba added: “Truck turn times range from 25 to 50 minutes during the daytime shift, while the night shift ranges from 24 to 60 minutes.”

US Soybean Exports Hit Hard In 2025

Hacegaba provided a detailed analysis of developments with soybean exports. Soybeans had suffered a severe decline when China cut back on buying U.S. soybeans after the Trump administration imposed new tariffs on China.

The result of China’s retaliation was that “China's retaliatory tariffs from earlier this year have led to a decrease in US exports across most agricultural commodities, including hay, cotton, animal feed, and soybeans. We're also seeing a decline in exports bound for countries that have not introduced retaliatory tariffs, but largely because they have less purchasing power to buy US products.”

Hacegaba went on to explain how soybean exporters have been hurt in 2025: “America produces 28% of the world's soybeans, and it's a commodity in high demand in Asia, where it is used in so many dishes. The upper Midwest states of Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa are the biggest source of these soybeans. In 2024, China was the number two destination for soybean exports for the Port of Long Beach, with more than 9,000 TEUs moved between January and September of last year.”

There was a huge drop in exports in 2025: “Through the first nine months of 2025. China has dropped to our number five destination for soybean exports with only 664 TEUs, which represents a 93% drop from last year. We also saw a decline in soybean exports to Hong Kong from 3,700 TEUs between January and September 2024 to just about 340 TEUs during the same period in 2025.”

Brazil has been a major soybean beneficiary of China’s retaliation against the Trump tariffs: “As trade policies shifted, China started sourcing its soybeans from other countries, mainly in South America and principally Brazil.”

At the same time, the Port of Long Beach saw an increase in US soybeans exported to other countries across Asia: “For a second year in a row, Indonesia led as a top destination with 20,000 TEUs of soybeans, up 2/3 from the first nine months of last year. Vietnam followed closely with 11,000 TEUs of exported soybeans, up 30% from last year. Now, that could all soon change as Mario signaled. Under a trade agreement reached last week, China committed to purchasing at least 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this year, followed by 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually from 2025 to 2028. “

On-Dock Rail Proceeding

In other news, Hacegaba reported that the Pier B project to build on-dock rail at terminals is proceeding according to schedule: “Our largest project, the Pier B On-Dock Rail Support Facility, continues construction, and we hope to start adding six new locomotive tracks next year. The project is scheduled for completion in 2032 as we continue to move a greater share of cargo via on-dock rail.”

Hacegaba said the Port of Los Angeles’s closing of the Vincent Thomas Bridge, a major transportation artery at Los Angeles, will not impact the Port of Long Beach: “The Port of Long Beach is also preparing for the effects of a project planned by Caltrans and our neighbors at the Port of Los Angeles, which will require a 16-month closure of the Vincent Thomas Bridge starting in November 2026. I want to be clear that this project will not impact operations or cargo movements here at the Port of Long Beach. In fact, we can assist with any planned or unplanned impacts on cargo movement by handling additional ships, trucks, and other modes of transportation to support the Port of Los Angeles. In addition to coordinating with our partners at Caltrans (California Department of Transportation) and the Port of Los Angeles, we plan to assist with spreading the word about road closures and detours for truck drivers and commuters alike.”

Zero Emission Progress

Hacegaba said there has been progress in building the zero-emission harbor truck fleet, and a battery-powered locomotive had been tested: “We are also continuing our pursuit to become the very first zero-emission port. We have a growing fleet of more than 600 zero-emissions trucks today and more than 100 truck charging stations within the Port. We recently supported the successful demonstration of a zero-emissions battery electric locomotive.”

Finally, there has been progress with green shipping collaborations: “And there are exciting proposals to electrify harbor craft at the Port, including tugboats. And thanks to our Green Shipping corridor partnerships with the ports in Shanghai and Singapore, ships are arriving at our Port that are operating on Methanol and Natural Gas.”