NRF says US port volumes projected to be down until spring

Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected to remain down year over year until Spring, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.02 million TEUs in November, the latest month for which final data is available. That was down 2.3% from October and down 6.5% year over year.

Following “chronic uncertainty” from increased US tariffs in 2025, the impact on cargo imports in 2026 is likely to still be affected by trade policy, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett said.

He explained: “As 2026 begins, we see a world increasingly focused on protecting domestic industries and addressing perceived trade imbalances. This approach has raised questions about the future of free trade and international economic cooperation.”

NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold noted:

“There should be a brief bump in imports this month ahead of Lunar New Year factory shutdowns in Asia, but we’re otherwise headed into the post-holiday shipping lull that comes each year. Retailers had a busy holiday season and are assessing what is ahead in 2026 so they can keep supply chains running smoothly. Retailers are hoping for more stability and certainty, especially regarding tariffs and trade policy, in 2026 to help ensure better supply chain operations to meet consumer needs.”

November cargo volumes at the Port of Los Angeles, the nation’s busiest port, were down by 12% year over year, but total volumes for 2025 are projected at 10 million TEUs, according to Executive Director Eugene Seroka.

Seroka spoke at a December 16th media briefing in which he warned: “We're also seeing the effects of retaliatory tariffs and third country trade deals on US Ag and manufacturing exports. This is a headwind we may face for some time to come.”

US ports have not yet reported numbers for December 2025, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 1.99 million TEUs, down 6.6% year over year. November and December are traditionally slow, but the year-over-year declines are partly because imports in late 2024 were elevated by concerns over port strikes. In addition, many retailers imported cargo earlier than usual in 2025 to avoid tariffs.

The first half of 2025 totaled 12.53 million TEUs, up 3.7% year over year. The full year is forecast at 25.4 million TEUs, down 0.4% from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024.

With volume forecast at 2.11 million TEUs, January is expected to see the first month-over-month increase since last July as retailers bring in merchandise prior to February’s Lunar New Year holiday in Asia, but would still be down 5.3% year over year. February is forecast at 1.94 million TEUs, down 4.6% year over year; March at 1.88 million TEUs, down 12.4%, and April at 2.03 million TEUs, down 8.1%. May is forecast at 2.07 million TEUs, up 6.2% for the first year-over-year gain since last August.

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates, provides historical data and forecasts for the US ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.