Middle East crisis not only factor shaping air cargo in 2026

In addition to the disruption wreaked by the ongoing crisis in the Middle East and the demand-capacity imbalance that pre-dated it, how the global air cargo market will play out in 2026 will also be determined by two other factors, according to a senior freight forwarding executive.

Speaking at a recent webinar, Henk Venema, DHL Global Forwarding’s (DGF) EVP, Global Airfreight, said the first concerns the impact of regulatory changes and fiscal measures set to reshape cross-border e-commerce between China and Europe. The second focuses on the further development of hyperscale AI, the sector’s fastest-growing vertical and one that is soaking up a great deal of air cargo capacity.

Firstly, e-commerce: incoming Customs reform in the European Union is designed to bring some regulation to unchecked trade flows that flood the bloc’s Single Market with up to 12 million parcels each day — many of which are non-compliant and illegal under the legislation in place.

The figures are nothing short of staggering. In 2024, 4.6 billion small parcels worth less than €150 were imported into the EU, double the figure for 2023, which was itself double that of 2022. In 2025, the European Commission estimated that the figure for 2025 is €5.9 billion in parcels.

Additional €5 Per Parcel Later This Year

The EU Customs reform is accompanied by two financial measures. Firstly, the abolition of the ‘de minimis’ rule, the Customs exemption previously applied to parcels worth less than €150. This will be replaced by a flat-rate tax of €3 per item from non-EU countries, effective July 1, 2026.

Secondly, a processing fee of €2 will be added later in the year.

In defense of their clothing industries and an attempt to even out the competitive playing field with the likes of Chinese fast fashion marketplaces Shein and Temu, two countries, Italy and France, decided to bring forward the introduction of the parcel tax, respectively, to January and March 2026, levied at €2 per item. How it has been received clearly illustrates just how sensitive the low-cost e-commerce shipping model from China is to any mandatory price increase.

In France, choosing to go it alone on the parcel tax has been described as a fiasco. By March 3, Customs declarations for small parcels at Paris-Charles de Gaulle (CDG) Airport, the country’s biggest air cargo hub, had fallen by 92% - a direct result of a shift in the flow of goods to European countries where the tax does not yet exist. The beneficiaries are CDG’s rivals, such as Liège, Amsterdam-Schiphol, and Frankfurt airports. The parcels are then forwarded to France by truck.

CDG is estimated to have lost around 50 freighter flights in the first week after the tax was introduced. Italy suffered the same consequences and has already announced a temporary postponement of its tax.

Taking Up Large Amount of Freighter Capacity

It’s difficult to gauge the impact of the parcel tax on e-commerce volumes to Europe from China once the 27-member bloc has adopted it.

“We are waiting to see what the response is going to be from the market to these new European regulations because cross-border e-commerce from China and Hong Kong is taking up a large amount of freighter capacity at the moment,’ Venema said.

“Should it lead to a massive decline in e-commerce volumes going to Europe, a good deal of this freighter capacity would be freed up. But jet fuel prices being what they are today, a lot of the freighters carrying e-commerce goods from China to Europe could well be taken out of the market because it would not be economical to fly them, especially the older Boeing 747-400F models.”

Huge Demand for Hyperscale AI Cargo

Venema speculates that these freighters may also end up having a role to play in the second ‘development’ DGF has on its radar, “probably the biggest growth engine of air freight overall in 2026 and beyond – the shipment of hyperscale AI.”

This includes highly-scalable computing infrastructure, including large-scale data centers, powerful processors, and vast networks to build, train, and run complex AI models.

“There is a huge volume of demand coming out of what we call the VTT countries - Vietnam, Thailand, and Taiwan, mainly going into the Midwest and Central US for the build-up of data centers and data parks, but which is also destined for other markets. This vertical is expected to continue its high growth rate and eat up a lot of air freight capacity this year.

Venema added: “So, when it comes to trends that we are watching, it is first of all what will happen in e-commerce to Europe, and the second is how much capacity will be absorbed by hyperscale AI demand out of the VTT.”