Middle East conflict: Ceasefire extension buoys air cargo recovery

The ongoing recovery in air cargo operations in the Middle East/Gulf region took a step back last week when the U.S. and Iran exchanged a new wave of strikes, prompting fears of renewed disruption across the region.

However, the subsequent Memorandum of Understanding between the two protagonists, which includes extending a ceasefire for another 60 days, appears to have brought an immediate return of color to the sector.

Three weekly round trips with Boeing 777 freighter

After resuming a freighter service connecting Frankfurt, Tel Aviv and Cairo on June 2, Lufthansa Cargo subsequently announced its postponement last week in response to hostilities flaring up again.

However, on June 15, a spokesperson for the German carrier told AJOT there were now plans to resume the service on June 23, underlining that its decision was based on “an extensive security analysis in coordination with the responsible authorities.” The German carrier expects to operate three round trips per week with a Boeing 777 freighter.

Austrian Airlines, part of the Lufthansa Group, resumed passenger flights to and from Tel Aviv on June 16.

Last week’s brief escalation aside, Gulf carriers Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways have steadily built up their passenger and freighter schedules again and are gradually moving closer to pre-conflict levels, benefiting from a period of relative stability after an initial ceasefire was agreed in April.

However, many international airlines, notably European carriers, continue to hesitate over a return to the Middle East/Gulf region, with weak passenger demand being just as important a factor as lingering security concerns.

British Airways has pushed back resumption of its Dubai passenger services until October 25, extending a suspension originally expected to end on July 1. Under the revised schedule, flights to Dubai, Tel Aviv, Bahrain and Amman, Jordan, will remain suspended, while frequencies to Doha and Riyadh are being reduced.

Air France resumed passenger services to Riyadh earlier this month, but a spokesperson confirmed that other destinations in the Gulf and wider region remained suspended.

Air France-KLM-Martinair Cargo continues to avoid Dubai on freighter services to and from Hong Kong.

DHL: ‘Service performance now close to normal’

In a response to questions from AJOT, DHL said its regional air operations had recovered significantly in recent weeks, with transit times and service performance nearing pre-conflict levels.

“Transit times, which had extended to five to seven days during the disruption, have largely returned to near pre-conflict levels of 24 to 48 hours. Service performance is now close to normal in many markets, with key hubs, including Bahrain, restored.

“Of course, some constraints in airfreight remain, including limited capacity in certain countries, occasional schedule disruptions and rising operational costs,” a spokesperson noted.

Contingency planning has been at the heart of DHL’s response to the crisis. During the height of the disruption, the company established backup hubs in Riyadh and Muscat to maintain connectivity across the region.

In April, it launched a thrice-weekly 747 freighter service between Liège and Jeddah, dedicated to pharma and life science shipments, with onward distribution across the GCC by road.

Following the reopening of regional airspace, the Gulf destination has since switched from Jeddah to Dubai World Central.

Limited dependence on ‘belly’ capacity

Asked how dependent DHL was on bellyhold capacity provided by European passenger airlines, which remain largely absent from the Middle East/Gulf market, the spokesperson said the company’s network was largely insulated from those constraints.

“DHL’s regional network is built for resilience and relies primarily on its own dedicated freighter fleet, limiting dependence on belly cargo capacity from passenger airlines. While belly capacity provides a complementary buffer under normal conditions, it represents only a small share of total capacity.”