Mega-projects increasingly have come under criticism. But are they the disaster the critics deem or a key to the future

Transport infrastructure mega-projects invariably capture the headlines, given their monumental size, scale and cost and more so when they are announced as being ultra-innovative, even revolutionary in design and make full use of emerging and disruptive technologies, such as AI and robotics.

They are also the target of fierce criticism, not least from the academic world. For example, Bent Flyvbjerg a Professor Emeritus at Oxford University, specializing in Major Program Management, is unequivocal in his view of mega-projects: “They cost too much. They take too long. They fall too short of expectations too often.” He has even come up with an ‘Iron Law of Mega-Projects’ which reads: “Over budget, over time, under benefits, over and over again.”

Flyvbjerg argues that the complexity, novelty and difficulty of mega-projects heighten their risk and leave them unusually vulnerable to extreme outcomes.

He adds: “You shouldn’t expect that they will go bad. You should expect that quite a large percentage will go disastrously bad.”

Mega-Projects Still Rising

However, despite such attacks the popularity of mega-projects appears to remain undimmed with no shortage of backers ready to endorse major avant-garde programs which are presented as having the scope to reshape societies and economies.

A prime example that comes to mind is Saudi Arabia’s spectacularly ambitious mega-project, Neom, a sprawling metropolis encompassing cities, resorts and developments that include The Line, a 170km east-west complex housing nine million people, and Oxagon, an octagon-shaped port city on the Red Sea coast.

The oil-rich Kingdom has created a joint-venture with Danish logistics giant DSV which will provide end-to-end supply chain management services to this gigantic undertaking.

In Switzerland, a futuristic mega-scheme, Cargo Sous Terrain or Cargo Underground (CST), focuses on developing a subterranean freight transport and distribution system, particularly tailored to the courier, express and parcel sector.

It is pitched as “a privately financed, automated, complete logistics system that will ensure the punctual delivery of goods, boost economic competitiveness and help preserve the high quality of life of Switzerland in the long term.”

CST has attracted more than 80 cross-business stakeholders which include DSV and Rhenus from the logistics sector.

It consists of building a network of tunnels or tubes through which driverless wagons, powered along conveyor belt-type tracks by electromagnetic induction, would travel at speeds of between 30km and 60km/hour, carrying cargo on pallets and in containers – an integrated, fully-automated logistics system operating around-the-clock.

Escalators would lower and lift cargo to and from the tubes. On the surface, shippers’ production sites or main distribution hubs and smaller sub-hubs, located on the outskirts of towns and cities would be linked, via the underground system.

CST’s origins date back more than a decade and the mega-project was prompted by estimates that the volume of the country’s freight traffic would rise sharply in the decades to come.

Existing transport infrastructure alone, both road and rail would be unable to absorb the projected growth – accompanied by an increase in traffic bottlenecks and CO2 emissions – making alternative systems imperative.

If an initial timeframe is respected, by circa 2045 a subterranean network of almost 500 kilometres (around 310 miles) is scheduled to be in operation spanning the breadth of Switzerland.

Meanwhile, 60 years on from launching the world’s first high-speed rail service for passengers, the Shinkansen, or ‘bullet train’, between Tokyo and Osaka, Japan is poised to embark on a freight transport infrastructure mega-project no less revolutionary than CST, aimed at developing a ‘conveyor belt or auto flow road’ for small goods linking the two Japanese cities over a distance of 320 miles (515 kms).

Viewed as a response to Japan’s worsening shortage of truck drivers and soaring demand for delivery capacity, it entails the creation of specialized transportation lanes which would be integrated into the existing road network. This would enable the operation of a 24/7 automated cargo transport system where human intervention is minimal and delivery services are continuous.

The government has released a computer-graphic video which shows wheeled boxes measuring 180 centimeters in height, or nearly six feet, and 110 centimeters, or 3.6 feet, by 110 centimeters in width and length, moving along a three-lane auto flow road in the middle of a motorway with vehicles traveling in opposite directions on either side.

The mega-project is still very much in the planning phase, and it will be 2027 before automated freight transportation systems are tested out on expressways and data collected on driverless vehicles, Yuri Endo, a senior director at Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MLIT), told AJOT. Once the trials have been completed, the system to be used for the auto flow road will be decided upon.

“The initial section of the automated transportation system is intended to be in an area where only small-scale modifications to existing infrastructure would be required. Locations are yet to be determined,” she said.

A government panel of experts has projected that 26% of the volume of small goods transported by truck between Tokyo and Osaka could potentially be carried on the auto flow road.

Ms Endo confirmed estimates of construction costs of 25.4 billion yen ($165 million) per 10 km for above-ground infrastructure and 7 billion to 80 billion yen for underground tunnels.

“Financing is currently under discussion. Basically, it is assumed that private companies will handle the project.”

As to how the auto flow road’s operating costs will be paid for once it is up and running, for example, through tolls, Ms Endo said no payment method had been decided on at this stage.

A final word on mega-projects comes from Professor John Manners-Bell, chief executive of market research organization, Transport Intelligence (Ti), who largely echoes comments from counterpart, Professor Bent Flyvbjerg.

“I am not a fan of them frankly as they take years to come to fruition (if ever) and they expend capital or taxpayers’ money which could be more usefully put to use. Technological development is likely to move faster than government bureaucracy and planning regulations – by the time such mega-projects come to realization.”

Running the rule over freight transport infrastructure projects such as those in Switzerland and Japan, he said one would imagine that trucks will be more than capable of driving themselves, given that manufacturers have been working on autonomous vehicles for many years and trials are well under way.

“I think that efforts would be better focused on creating the regulatory environment for trucks to drive on existing roads, using vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure technologies. On top of this, road congestion and bottlenecks can be addressed by investing a fraction of the amount of money required for huge projects. However, they tend not to be glamorous, and why politicians are drawn to futuristic mega-projects.”