WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 48) - 2024

Dec 09, 2024

Worldwide air cargo rates rose to a 2024 high in November of US$2.76 per kilo, despite a slight (-2%) drop in flown tonnages compared with October, although demand and pricing both remain significantly above their already elevated levels last November, according to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market data.

The figures reflect worldwide air cargo markets that remain relatively strong, including ex-Asia Pacific, but where good advance planning by air cargo stakeholders looks set to avert a major peak season capacity crunch and very steep rate rises in the final weeks of the year.

Nevertheless, average worldwide rates in November rose by +6%, month on month (MoM), based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, taking them to their highest level since January 2023 and +11% higher, year on year (YoY). The biggest MoM increases came from Europe (+10%) and Central & South America (CSA, +9%) origins, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. Average worldwide spot rates rose to $3.09 per kilo in November, a YoY increase of +21%, whereas contract rates worldwide averaged $2.67 per kilo, a +10% rise, YoY.

But overall global tonnages in November were down -2%, MoM, with the biggest percentage decline coming from Middle East & South Asia (MESA, -11%) origins, which have been highly elevated for most of this year. But the -4%, MoM, decrease from Europe origins was responsible for a similar drop in tonnage terms – reflecting reduced passenger belly capacity since the start of aviation’s winter season from 27 October, including cuts in passenger services by European carriers to and from China.

Weekly analysis

On a weekly level, average global full-market rates in week 48 (25 November to 1 December) rose by a further +2%, WoW, to $2.84 per kilo, also their highest level this year, as air cargo’s fourth-quarter peak season approaches its zenith. Spot rates rose +3%, week on week (WoW), to $3.22 per kilo, thanks to increases from Asia-Pacific (+4%, WoW), North America (+3%), Europe (+2%), and CSA (+1%), together delivering a global YoY increase of +19%.

Worldwide chargeable weight flown in week 28, meanwhile, dipped by -3%, compared with the previous week, although that was primarily due to a -17% WoW decrease from North America origins because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the USA on 28 November. Excluding cargo to and from the USA, worldwide tonnages were stable, WoW, in week 48.

Asia Pacific to Europe growth continues

Within that +4% WoW increase in spot rates from Asia-Pacific origins, rates to Europe rose significantly, WoW, from most key Asia Pacific markets, taking them at or close to their highest levels so far this year, including China ($5.10 per kilo, +7% WoW), Hong Kong ($6.25, +9%), Japan ($4.97, +6%), South Korea ($5.49, +6%), Taiwan ($4.07, +5%), and Vietnam ($4.88, +3%). All of those are substantially above their levels in the equivalent week last year, including YoY increases of more than +30% from Japan and Vietnam, and a YoY increase of +46% from Taiwan.

Despite the flat volumes on a global basis, chargeable weight flown to Europe in week 48 rose further, WoW, from China (+3%), Hong Kong (+5%), and Vietnam (+4%), and was more than +20% higher, YoY, from China (+24%), Hong Kong (+27%), Japan (+29%), and Vietnam (+25%) origins. Tonnages to Europe from Thailand, Singapore, and Taiwan were up by around +15%, YoY.