WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 47)

Global tonnages in the last full week of November were at the same level as the previous week, while the overall average rate maintained a steady growth path of +2% to its highest level recorded in 2024, at US$ 2.79, driven by increasing spot rates, mainly from North America and Europe origins.

According to the latest weekly figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data, average spot rates from North America jumped by +12% week on week (WoW) in week 47 (18 to 24 November) to $2.04, and from Europe by +8% to $2.90. Globally, average spot rates increased by +4% to $3.21, while average contract rates decreased slightly, by -1% WoW, to $2.65.

Based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, global average rates in week 47 were +10% higher, year on year (YoY), with spot rates at +22% and contract rates at +8%. While the average rates for origin regions Asia Pacific and Middle East & Asia are rather stable compared to the previous week, they have increased substantially over the last months and stand currently at, respectively, +8% and +46% (YoY). Despite North America's strong week-on-week rate development, it is the only origin region not exceeding last year's rate level.

As rates continue to elevate, we see the weekly growth of the global tonnages, that we reported on since the beginning of the month, pausing in week 47, with the exception of origin region Central & South America (+3%, WoW). Compared to last year, all origin regions show a positive development in chargeable weight, except for Africa (-3%). The most notable growth was recorded for origin region North America, +22% (YoY), while last week we reported only +7%. This year-on-year jump was largely caused by the Thanksgiving holiday, which last year took place one week earlier (week 47) than this year (week 48).

Capacity shift from Transatlantic to Asia Pacific affecting rates

On a region-to-region level, average rates have been increasing significantly on the trade lane Europe to North America (+8%, WoW), whereas average rates from Asia Pacific to North America are flattening week on week. When comparing week 47 with the same period last year, rates ex-Europe to North America are +24% higher, while rates ex-Asia Pacific to North America are at +10%. When looking more specifically at the average rate ex-China to the USA, there is actually a year-on-year decline of -3%, from $5.58 in week 47, 2023, to $5.43 this year in the same period.

These rate dynamics can partially be explained by a shift of capacity from the Transatlantic to the Asia Pacific region, anticipating a surge of, largely, e-commerce shipments from, mainly but not exclusively, China and Hong Kong, to Europe and North America.

The capacity reduction on the Transatlantic in the last three weeks has been -3% (YoY), fully driven by less freighter capacity (-10%), while belly capacity remained stable. On the routes between Asia Pacific and North America, capacity has grown by +7% (YoY), both for freighters and belly capacity.

Also, more forwarders than last year secured their capacity before the peak season, which has a dampening effect on the rate development pattern that we saw last year, and which was more typical for the trade lanes ex-Asia Pacific in this season.