WorldACD Weekly Air Cargo Trends (week 3) - 2025

Worldwide air cargo tonnages continued to rebuild in the third week of 2025 following their seasonal drop in the final days of December and the start of this year, although spot rates continue to edge downwards.

According to the latest figures and analysis by WorldACD Market Data, worldwide air cargo tonnages regained +8% in week 3 (13 to 19 January), after rebounding +29% the previous week. That follows a total drop of around -35% in the last week of December and the first week of 2025, taking worldwide tonnages in week 3 back up to around 90% of their levels in the last full week before Christmas. Year on year (YoY), tonnages were up in week 3 by +3%, globally (and +2% for week 2 and 3 combined).

Average global rates remained more or less stable at US $2.43 per kilo in week 3, based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates, around +7% higher than in week 3 last year. Average worldwide spot rates dropped by a further -3%, week on week (WoW). But they stand +16% higher than in the same week last year, with spot prices from Middle East & South Asia (MESA) up by +54% YoY, and rates from Asia Pacific origins +20% higher.

Asia Pacific demand drop

Tonnages from Asia Pacific origins regained another +5% in week 3, taking them +5% above their levels this time last year, although they remain around -10% below the peak levels reached in week 49. Some air cargo industry executives have expressed concern this month about how steeply tonnages (mostly e-commerce) from Asia Pacific have dropped off since their peak in mid-December, especially to Europe. Analysis by WorldACD indicates that the overall decline this winter is not so significantly greater than last winter, based on the more than 500,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data. With both seasons experiencing extremely strong peak season volumes from Asia Pacific, volumes last winter dropped by around -30% from their peak levels to a low point in the first week of January, compared with around -33% this winter. By week 3 in 2024, Asia Pacific tonnages had rebounded to around 95% of their weekly peak levels in December, compared with around 90% this year in week 3.

But the recovery gap is more pronounced on Asia Pacific to Europe: last winter, Asia Pacific to Europe (and China to Europe) tonnages in week 3 had already rebounded back above their levels in weeks 48, 49, and 50, whereas this winter in week 3 Asia Pacific to Europe volumes are still well below (-20%) their levels achieved in week 49, with China to Europe tonnages about -15% below their peak. However, that mostly reflects their extraordinarily high levels in the final weeks of 2024. The comparisons are also complicated by the timings of Lunar New Year, which comes relatively early in 2025 on 29 January compared with 10 February in 2024.

Spot rates remain high

Spot rates from Asia Pacific to Europe dipped by further -4% in week 3 to an average of $4.35 per kilo. That’s down by around -15% compared with their level in week 49 ($5.14 per kilo), but it’s still up, year on year, by +31%.

Meanwhile, Asia Pacific to the USA tonnages rebounded in week 3 by a further +7% following a +11% recovery the previous week, taking them back to around -16% below their early December peak levels recorded in week 48. Asia Pacific to USA spot rates have dropped, WoW, for five consecutive weeks from their December peak of $6.89 per kilo in week 50 to $5.21 per kilo in week 3, although they are still up +29% compared with the equivalent week last year.