Wheat returns above $11 on weather woes, potential India curbs

Wheat headed for the first back-to-back advance in three weeks on weather concerns across global growers and as India considers restricting exports. 

Extreme heat has hurt the harvest in India, where shipments have been booming in the wake of the war in Ukraine. That’s spurring the country to mull export restrictions, Bloomberg reported Wednesday. 

In addition, soggy fields have delayed North American spring-wheat plantings, while drought has hampered winter-wheat conditions further south. In Europe, some wheat areas are also shy of rain.

“If less wheat now reaches the global market from India, we risk seeing supply tighten again,” Commerzbank AG analyst Carsten Fritsch said in a note. “The uncertainty about this is likely to continue preoccupying the wheat market and could lead to further price rises.”

Wheat futures rose as much as 2.7% to $11.06 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, nearing a one-week high. In Paris, milling wheat futures also climbed for a second session.

Top officials in India are discussing export restrictions and will recommend it to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who will then make the decision, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Still, there’s no need to curb exports for now as the country has enough supply to meet domestic demand, Food Secretary Sudhanshu Pandey said.

Global grain trading has been upended after Russia’s invasion choked off most exports from Ukraine, a critical supplier of staples like wheat, corn and sunflower oil. India, which traditionally hasn’t been a major exporter as high government crop prices kept its grain at home, has shipped out more on demand from big importers. 

Corn futures rose 0.4% to $7.9725 a bushel, also gaining for a second day. Soybeans traded 0.7% higher.