War in Ukraine sends Indonesia exports, imports to new records

Indonesia’s exports rose to a fresh all-time high in March as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge in global commodity prices and swelled the nation’s shipments of steel, coal and palm oil.

Exports climbed 44.36% year-on-year, beating all analyst forecasts in a Bloomberg survey for a total value of $26.5 billion last month. Southeast Asia’s largest economy recorded a trade surplus of $4.53 billion, also beating all economist estimates.

“On the other hand, the war in Ukraine also increases our oil and gas imports,” Margo Yuwono, head of Indonesia’s statistics office, said on Monday. “The impact on our trade further will depend on how long the Russia-Ukraine conflict will last.”

Indonesia, which remains a net oil importer, saw its imports jump 30.85% to $21.97 billion in March, another record high. This was also likely boosted by the recovery of manufacturing and increased consumption as the coronavirus pandemic ebbs, according to PT Bank Danamon Indonesia economist Wisnu Wardana.

“As long as the government keeps its current state of mobility measures, we believe imports will continue to increase toward the year-end,” he said. “However, the surge in exported commodity prices would cushion a narrowing trade surplus in the foreseeable future,” said Wardana, who is revising his projection for the 2022 current account deficit to 0.5% of gross domestic product from 1.9%.