US Vote 2024: Trump 2.0 to reshape global LNG landscape, unlock long-term demand / Rystad

Triggered by incoming US President Donald Trump, the next four years could prime the liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets for a golden era. Based on his campaign pledge, the returning president’s expected policies are likely to accelerate US LNG infrastructure expansion through deregulation and faster permitting, bolstering global supply. This could strengthen the sentiment around global LNG supply after years of uncertainty, helping to unleash long-term demand. Even so, an untimely supply boost will heighten the risk of a medium-term market glut, which would put downward pressure on prices.

President-elect Trump’s pro-energy agenda includes fast-tracking permits for stalled LNG projects, reversing Biden-era regulatory pauses and increasing leases on federal land for gas production. If implemented, US LNG export capacity could nearly double from 11.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcfd) in 2023 to 22.4 Bcfd in 2030, with major projects like Texas LNG and Calcasieu Pass (CP2) moving forward despite environmental pressures. This expansion is crucial for the US to remain a major player in the global LNG market, with demand expected to reach almost 600 million tonnes (Mt) in 2030. Based on currently producing and under-development projects, a supply gap of 140 Mt will materialize in 2035.

“Trump’s accelerated LNG approvals could further strengthen the US position in the global energy market, meeting critical demand as the world transitions away from other energy sources. However, this rapid expansion risks oversaturating the market, potentially driving down prices and profitability for producers. The key challenge will be balancing domestic growth ambitions with global stability to ensure long-term market share and competitiveness,” said Emily McClain, Head of North America Gas & LNG Research at Rystad Energy.

The geopolitical implications of expanded US LNG production are also substantial. The Trump administration could leverage LNG as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Europe, Russia and other major economies. Europe is still searching for reliable, long-term alternatives to Russian piped gas and LNG supply, while China-US LNG trade is likely to be affected by tariffs.