US oil executives expect crude output to rise as Iran war continues, survey shows

U.S. oil executives expect domestic production to rise as the ongoing war in Iran upends global supplies and pushes crude and fuel prices higher, according to a Dallas Fed survey. 

The survey collected data from April 15 to April 20 from 120 oil and gas firms, of which 78 were exploration and production firms and 42 were oilfield services firms.

• A total of 43% of survey respondents expect U.S. crude production to rise by up to 250,000 barrels per day this year as a result of the Iran war. This diverges from the Energy Information Administration, which is forecasting U.S. crude output at 13.51 million bpd for 2026, compared with 13.58 million bpd last year.

• About two-thirds of respondents think at least 90% of Gulf production that has been shut in will return to market eventually.

• Asked when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels, 20% said by next month, 39% said August, while the remaining respondents said either by November or later.

• Most executives expect shipping costs from the Gulf to increase after the conflict ends, with more than a third surveyed saying costs will jump between $2 and $4 a barrel.

• "The price of oil will fall back to the $65 a barrel level very quickly once this conflict settles down," an exploration and production executive said.

• "In response to the roughly 45 days of West Texas Intermediate over $75 per barrel, we are hearing increased talk of smaller operators adding rigs. We are also seeing larger independent operators move up drilling schedules," an oilfield services firm executive said.