US LNG exports to rise at smallest pace since 2016

U.S. liquefied natural gas exports this year will rise about 2%, analysts estimate, the smallest annual increase since 2016 when the first big U.S. LNG export plant opened, launching a boom that drove the country's producers to the top of world gas exporters.

Slower gains reflect delays and production outages and the absence of a new facility since March 2022 when Venture Global LNG's started up its Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana, project.

This year's 2% increase in export volumes, to 12.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), is down from 12% last year and the average growth rate of 43% between 2018 and 2022, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The dollar value of U.S. exports reached a peak of $47.33 billion in 2022, when prices skyrocketed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Prices eased and last year's U.S. exports were valued at $34.27 billion, according to U.S. government data.

Faster growth should resume next year when new projects start. Gains could rise around 14% to an estimated 13.8 bcfd in 2025, according to an EIA outlook.

U.S. LNG capacity could more than double over the next four years, rising to around 17.8 bcfd next year, 20.6 bcfd in 2026, and reach 24.5 bcfd in 2028, analysts estimate.

TWO STARTUPS AHEAD

The seven big LNG export plants are capable of turning around 13.8 bcfd of natural gas into LNG for export. Since 2023 the U.S. has been the world's largest exporter of the superchilled gas.

The 2024 forecast includes some output from two projects scheduled to start operation by year-end: Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass, Texas, expansion, and Venture Global's Plaquemines, Louisiana facility.

A contractor's bankruptcy has delayed the third project that was due to open this year, the QatarEnergy and Exxon Mobil Golden Pass joint venture. The partners say they expect to deliver first LNG in the second half of next year, but others see the delay stretching into 2026.

"That sort of thing is very disruptive and so getting back up to speed when something like that is happening is a challenge," said Jason Feer, Poten and Partners Global head of business intelligence.

This year's growth was constrained by maintenance and other outages at the second-largest U.S. export facility, Freeport LNG's 2.1-bcfd plant in Texas.

Its output was cut by more than half for almost four months from mid January, according to the company and data from financial firm LSEG.