Ukraine farms to face overflowing silos even as harvest shrinks

As Ukrainian farmers press ahead with fieldwork during the war, they’ll soon be grappling with a fresh problem: where to stash the next harvests.

Russia’s invasion began during a peak period for Ukraine’s corn exports, which has left a hefty volume of grain stuck on farms as ports closed. While some crops are still trickling out by rail and road, it will take at least 10 months to clear the current crop surplus, Kyiv-based analyst UkrAgroConsult said in a note. 

Added to the hurdles, as much as 5% of the country’s grain elevators have suffered damage from the war and another 15% can’t be accessed, UkrAgroConsult estimates. That could leave farmers running short of storage space by autumn, even with harvests expected to shrink by about half versus last year.

There should be enough room for the first-collected crops, such as wheat, while others reaped later like corn could face a storage crunch unless seaborne trade resumes. The International Grains Council estimates that Ukraine’s grain stockpiles ahead of the next harvests will be quadruple the norm.

“If the Black Sea blockade by Russian warships continues until September, this could be a serious obstacle to further development of the agricultural sector,” UkrAgroConsult analyst Maryna Marynych said. “It is quite probable that some farmers will have to leave corn in the fields until next spring, which will certainly affect the grain quality and price.”