U.S. propane inventories are well stocked heading into the winter heating season

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The United States is well stocked with propane heading into the winter heating season, which runs from November through March, with U.S. propane inventories at the top of the five-year range spanning the winter of 2019–20 to the winter of 2023–24.

U.S. propane inventories totaled 103 million barrels at the end of the week of October 11, 2024, the most since we began collecting weekly propane inventories in 2015. In the week ending November 1, 2024, inventories decreased to slightly more than 100 million barrels, about 11% more than the five-year average.

Propane inventories reflect supply and demand balances. The U.S. propane storage injection season typically runs from April through October, followed by a withdrawal season during the winter. Propane inventories remained above the previous five-year average for most of the storage injection season this year. U.S. propane inventories grew 94% since the start of the storage injection season (the week ending April 5, 2024). Last year, propane inventories grew 77% from the first week of April to 98 million barrels for the week ending November 3, 2023.

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The Midwest (PADD 2) is starting the winter heating season with 29 million barrels in propane inventories, about 12% more than the five-year average and 8% more than last year. The Midwest is the U.S. region with the greatest propane demand for space heating, accounting for about one-third of the 6.6 million U.S. households that reported using propane as a primary space heating fuel in 2024. We estimate that 83% of propane consumption is for space heating in the Midwest, while the remaining 17% is used for non-heating demand.

Non-heating demand includes grain-drying demand, which can significantly affect propane inventories in the Midwest. About 90% of the U.S. corn crop is grown in the Midwest. If crops mature at the end of October or later or have a high moisture content at harvest, producers use grain dryers powered primarily by natural gas or propane to dry the grain enough to make it marketable. This year’s corn crops were harvested much earlier than on average from 2019 to 2023, reducing propane demand for grain-drying. As a result, Midwest propane inventories are well above the five-year average and five-year range.

The Gulf Coast, where most petrochemicals are consumed and most propane is exported from, has about 70% of U.S. propane storage capacity. Propane inventories on the Gulf Coast totaled 57 million barrels for the week ending November 1, about 12% more than the five-year average.

Global demand for propane has increased because of its growing use as a petrochemical feedstock. U.S. propane exports to Asia have grown rapidly as consumption of propane as a petrochemical feedstock has increased in recent years. U.S. propane exports on average have been at record highs so far in 2024, and we expect them to stay elevated through the rest of this year and into 2025.