Turkish GDP grows 9.1% in final quarter, led by exports

Turkey’s economy expanded more than predicted in the fourth quarter of last year, driven by a surge in domestic consumption and exports.

Gross domestic product rose 9.1% in the October-to-December period from a year earlier, beating the median estimate of 9% in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. 

Growth for the full year was 11%, the state statistics agency said, making Turkey the fastest growing country among G-20 group of nations both in the last quarter and in 2021 as a whole. Turkey’s recovery from the coronavirus pandemic gained pace in the first half of the year and maintained momentum thanks to strong exports. Consumption also remained solid as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan forced cheaper borrowing but inflation spiraled out of control, denting growth prospects for 2022.

Below are the highlights of the GDP report:

• Household consumption—estimated to account for more than half the economy—jumped 21.4% in the final quarter from a year earlier.
• Exports grew 20.7% during the same period; imports expanded 2.6%
• Gross fixed capital formation, a measure of investment by businesses, shrank 0.8%; government spending dropped 1.9%
• Quarterly growth in the economy when adjusted for calendar and seasonal impact was 1.5%, compared with the median estimate of 2.1%

Turkey will publish February inflation data on March 3. The central bank’s next rate-setting meeting is scheduled for March 17.