Tropical Storm Francine churns toward Louisiana as path shifts

Tropical Storm Francine is set to become a hurricane Tuesday as it churns toward Louisiana after shifting east, forcing some oil drillers to halt production but following a path that will likely avert key natural gas export plants. 

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On its current track, Francine will skirt liquefied natural gas facilities clustered around the Texas-Louisiana border, including Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal, as it makes landfall as a hurricane Wednesday. With top winds of 65 miles (105 kilometers) per hour, the storm is currently about 395 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 7 a.m. Houston time. 

Overall, Francine will likely cause $5 billion in damage and losses if it hits at Category 2 strength, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. There is a chance it will weaken as it comes ashore, which would drop losses to about $1 billion. If Francine gathers steam, it will be the third hurricane to hit the US mainland this year. 

“Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast,” Jack Beven, a senior hurricane specialist at the center, wrote in his forecast. Francine’s winds are expected to top out at 100 mph, making it a Category 2 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale. 

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle, Louisiana. Storm surge warnings are in place from High Island, Texas, near Houston, to the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among companies taking measures like evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities and shutting in some wells. Gas supply to US LNG export plants was down 3.2% Tuesday from a day earlier.

Overnight, Francine’s winds remained stable, which “seems to be putting a cap on the upside intensity risk,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC. It still has to cross some warm water that provide fuel for strengthening, but Francine also faces wind conditions that could damage the storm’s structure and limit its power. 

Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition Yankee at Houston, Galveston and other key Texas harbors, a warning that rough weather is expected within 24 hours. 

One upside to Francine as it moves ashore is that it will bring much-needed water to the parched Mississippi River, where low water levels have threatened to roil shipments of everything from corn to gasoline.

The hurricane center is tracking two other disturbances in the central Atlantic Ocean with the potential to become tropical storms. Both are hundreds of miles or more from populated areas.