The omicron variant Is chipping away at worldwide air travel

Just as global air traffic appeared to be getting closer to pre-pandemic levels, the omicron variant has grounded planes once more, stalling the recovery.

Commercial flights were back within 15% of comparable 2019 levels in the first days of December, according to data from FlightRadar24. That was before countries around the world responded to the emergence of the new coronavirus strain by imposing more restrictions on travelers. By the end of the first week, flight numbers were back to more than 18% below those seen during the same period in 2019. 

There have been plenty of other dips in the path to a recovery in air traffic, the most recent two occurring in the past month. But this latest setback has been both steeper and deeper than either of those, and a rebound is proving sluggish while the severity of the new variant remains unclear.

The IEA cut its forecast for jet fuel demand in the first quarter of 2022 by nearly 600,000 barrels a day on Tuesday, that’s equivalent to about 10% of expected annual average purchases. 

That implies a much larger drop in flights than observed in the FlightRadar24 data so far. The current 18% drop from 2019 levels also remains significantly better than a month ago. So if the IEA is right, the worst is yet to come.