The National Drayage Spot Market Index has increased by 8.8% YoY

May reflects a freight environment increasingly shaped by a combination of softening global demand and structural constraints within the supply chain, rather than traditional seasonal strength. Prolonged geopolitical instability tied to the ongoing conflict involving Iran is beginning to weigh on containerized trade volumes, with carriers responding through blank sailings and capacity adjustments. At the same time, inland logistics networks are facing mounting pressure from infrastructure limitations and evolving port dynamics. For the drayage sector, the signal is shifting: while demand is no longer accelerating, the market remains sensitive to disruption, with cost structures and service reliability continuing to be influenced by external forces. Drayage rates are up 8.8% year-over-year, supported by persistent fuel-related costs and inefficiencies across landside networks.

Disruptions across global shipping networks are now being driven not only by geopolitical risk but also by carrier strategy and declining demand signals. Blank sailings across major east-west trades are becoming more frequent as ocean carriers attempt to rebalance capacity in response to weakening volumes tied to the Iran conflict. At the same time, tightening bunker fuel availability is pushing fuel costs higher, adding another layer of cost pressure without materially improving service levels. Compounding this, ongoing concerns from small and midsize shippers around fuel surcharge transparency are highlighting a growing disconnect between carrier pricing mechanisms and market realities. While these dynamics are largely ocean-driven, their downstream impact is beginning to reshape cargo flow consistency into the United States.

For drayage providers, this evolving landscape is creating a more fragmented and less predictable operating environment. Reduced vessel frequency paired with blank sailings is contributing to uneven cargo arrival patterns, while infrastructure limitations across ports, rail ramps, and chassis networks are emerging as a primary bottleneck. Landside congestion is increasingly being defined not just by volume, but by the inability of existing infrastructure to efficiently absorb and process cargo. In key gateways such as the Port of New York/New Jersey, efforts to address the growing backlog of empty containers through revised tariffs and fees have so far fallen short of driving meaningful accountability, allowing imbalances to persist. At the same time, discussions around increased carrier control of terminal operations on the East Coast signal potential structural shifts that could further influence how drayage capacity is allocated and managed.

Taken together, May reflects a market where demand-side softness and infrastructure-driven inefficiencies are converging to redefine operational priorities. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, diesel now averages $5.50 per gallon, up from $3.50 in May 2025.