Tariff shifts and post-Lunar New Year rebound reshape Asia to U.S. freight flows

Asia-Pacific freight markets are entering a new phase of adjustment as post–Lunar New Year production rebounds intersect with renewed tariff uncertainty and persistent ocean freight weakness. According to Dimerco Express Group’s March 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report, tightening air capacity in Northeast Asia and shifting sourcing strategies tied to recent U.S. trade rulings are beginning to reshape trade flows, while ocean carriers continue struggling to restore rate stability.

Global manufacturing showed renewed momentum entering 2026, with the Global Manufacturing PMI rising to 52.4, signaling stronger output and new orders. However, freight conditions remain uneven across modes and regions, creating a market defined more by policy shifts and capacity management than by sustained demand recovery.

Air Freight Demand Rebounds Unevenly

Air cargo markets are rebounding unevenly following factory restarts across Asia. Capacity from Taiwan and South Korea to the United States is tightening significantly, driven by electronics, semiconductor equipment, AI servers, and other high-tech exports. Intra-Asia lanes are also experiencing selective constraints as production normalizes.

At the same time, evolving U.S. tariff developments, including the temporary Section 122 duty and the recent ruling on IEEPA rulings, are influencing sourcing and production strategies across the region.

“Tariff uncertainty is likely to reshape the Intra-Asia market,” said Kathy Liu VP, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group. “Since 2025, regional volumes have been supported by raw material movements linked to China+1 manufacturing strategies, particularly in Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. If tariff treatment becomes uniform across countries, shippers may shift back to exporting directly from China instead of routing materials through Southeast Asia. This could lead to softer Intra-Asia traffic compared with 2025.”

Ocean Rates Remain Under Pressure

Ocean freight markets continue to show weakness despite carrier efforts to manage capacity. Approximately 18% of sailings were canceled between February and March, with 63% concentrated on the Transpacific Eastbound trade lane. Even with these reductions, rates have not shown meaningful upward movement.

Carrier financial pressure, continued vessel deliveries, and the gradual return of some Suez Canal transits are increasing effective capacity across major trade lanes.

“The post–Lunar New Year rush is unlikely to significantly change shipping dynamics,” said Ted Chen, Director - Ocean Freight, Global Sales and Marketing, Dimerco Express Group. “With weak consumer sentiment and a soft demand outlook, capacity control is once again in focus. Given the recent financial pressure on carriers, the delivery of new vessels, and the gradual return of some Suez Canal transits, we expect steamship lines to step up efforts to manage capacity. However, it remains uncertain whether these measures will be sufficient to reverse the current soft rate trend.”

Traffic Volatility and Compliance Complexity Remain Elevated

Trade compliance risk remains high. Although certain IEEPA tariffs have been ruled unlawful, implementation guidance and refund processes remain unclear. At the same time, temporary import duty measures and ongoing scrutiny under Sections 301, 232, 122, and 338 create continued uncertainty.

The report advises importers and shippers to maintain complete and accurate documentation and prepare for potential regulatory changes as enforcement actions and inspections remain elevated.

Near-Term Watchpoints

The March report highlights several catalysts that may influence freight markets in the coming weeks:

--Frontloading of China photovoltaic exports ahead of April 1 VAT rebate removal

--Potential broader return to Suez Canal routings, which could increase effective capacity on Asia–Europe lanes

--Fiscal year-end export activity in India

--Ramadan and Idul Fitri operational impacts across Southeast Asia

--While manufacturing indicators are improving, freight markets remain sensitive to policy developments, carrier capacity decisions, and regional production shifts.