Taiwan exports set to fall again on plummeting Chinese demand

Taiwan likely recorded its worst export growth in nearly three years as the global slowdown intensifies and demand from China continues to drop, jeopardizing a vital part of the trade-dependent economy’s growth. 

Overseas shipments are expected to have contracted 6% in October from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the worst fall since January 2020, when exports dropped 7.6%. 

Imports are also expected to have declined 5%, which would be the second straight month of contractions after not falling for more than two years. Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance is scheduled to report trade data Tuesday afternoon. 

“Taiwan’s export momentum will significantly weaken in the fourth quarter,” said Kevin Wang, economist at Taishin Securities Investment Advisory Co. “We expect exports to show negative growth every month through the end of 2022,” and the drop in China’s imports makes Taiwan’s export outlook even grimmer, he said. 

Taiwanese officials have been warning for weeks that trade would be under pressure toward the end of the year as exports contracted in September for the first time since 2020 on global headwinds from inflation, tighter monetary policy and cooling Chinese demand. Since then, the outlook has only gotten worse - with other economies in the region including South Korea reporting dismal trade figures because of the drop-off in global demand.

China’s data, meanwhile, has soured considerably as the country sticks to Covid Zero and continues to battle a property slump. The world’s second-largest economy reported Monday that both exports and imports fell in October for the first time in more than two years. Purchases from Taiwan dropped 4.6% from a year earlier, the fifth consecutive month of declines.

China and Hong Kong buy about 40% of Taiwan’s total exports, making those markets key trading partners. Officials have talked about the need for Taiwan to diminish its dependence on China, though attempts to help that by signing trade deals remain unresolved.

The troubled trade outlook has ramifications for Taiwan’s economic growth this year. Gross domestic product is projected to grow about 3.2% in 2022 from the previous year, less than half the expansion last year. 

Taiwan’s economy so far has managed to stave off a significant downturn on the strength of domestic demand, though expansion in the third quarter was still weaker than what the government had initially estimated. 

Wang said he expects domestic demand can offer some support to offset sluggish exports, but added that if the performance for overseas shipments worsens, there is a risk 2022 growth could slip below 3%.

The central bank will also have to consider next month whether to raise interest rates again -- though Governor Yang Chin-long said last week that Taiwan would not necessarily keep pace with the US Federal Reserve on rates as it considers inflation and GDP as factors contributing to the decision.