Storm Francine is set to strengthen as it plows toward Louisiana

Tropical Storm Francine is set to become a hurricane Tuesday as it churns toward Louisiana, forcing some oil drillers to halt production but following a path that will likely avert major natural gas export plants. 

On its current track, Francine is forecast to come ashore Wednesday in a sparsely populated region and could graze Lafayette, Morgan City and Baton Rouge as it heads north into Mississippi. Aside from coastal flooding caused by storm surge that may reach as high as 10 feet (3 meters) in some places, there is a moderate chance of flash flooding across southeastern Louisiana, including New Orleans, the US Weather Prediction Center said. 

With top winds of 65 miles per hour, the storm is about 425 miles southwest of Morgan City, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 10 a.m. Houston time. Francine is expected to skirt liquefied natural gas facilities clustered around the Texas-Louisiana border, including Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal. 

Earlier forecasts that Francine would reach Category 2 strength on the Saffir-Simpson scale have been revised downward, with its top winds now expected to only reach 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm. Still, Francine will likely cause $2.7 billion in damage and losses, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. There is a chance it will weaken as it comes ashore, which would drop losses to about $1 billion. Francine would be the third hurricane to hit the US mainland this year. 

Overnight, Francine’s winds remained stable, which “seems to be putting a cap on the upside intensity risk,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC. It still has to cross some warm water that provide fuel for strengthening, but Francine also faces wind conditions that could damage the storm’s structure and limit its power. 

Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency as Francine approached. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass to Grand Isle. Storm surge warnings are in place from High Island, Texas, near Houston, to the Mississippi-Alabama border.

Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among companies taking measures like evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities and shutting in some wells. Gas supply to US LNG export plants was down 3.2% Tuesday from a day earlier. Francine’s probable path intersects with federal leases that produced about 90,400 barrels a day of oil, according to Bloomberg calculations from the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management and the National Hurricane Center. Five Gulf Coast refineries also lie in the storm’s track.

Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition Yankee at Houston, Galveston and other key Texas harbors, a warning that rough weather is expected within 24 hours. The same condition was declared at Port Arthur, while Louisiana’s Port Fourchon began emergency evacuations.

One upside to Francine as it moves ashore is that it will bring much-needed water to the parched Mississippi River, where low water levels have threatened to roil shipments of everything from corn to gasoline. But rains will make field work harder, delaying harvests and reducing grain quality.