Singapore Airlines tumbles after Morgan Stanley slashes rating

Morgan Stanley downgraded Singapore Airlines Ltd. after a peer-beating rally over the past month, saying positives such as strong fundamentals and favorable fuel prices have been priced in.

Shares of the carrier tumbled as much as 5.1% on Friday, the most since Feb. 2022, on track to snap its longest winning streak since 2008. An Asia Pacific gauge of airline stocks traded higher on the day. 

The rating cut to equal-weight from overweight is the airlines’ first in four months since its rapid climb catapulted the stock to among the top gainers on the Bloomberg World Airlines Index this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Singapore Airlines has risen 33% since May 16 after it reported a record profit, driven by pent-up demand. In contrast, the Straits Times Index has advanced 1.4% in that period.

Many market players have remained optimistic on the firm as higher capacity and benign fuel prices will enhance margins in the current fiscal year. Still, these factors looked “played out” and the rally so far has captured these positives, analysts including Divya Gangahar Kothiyal wrote in a note Friday.

The stock has overshot a consensus estimate target price of S$6.31, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley raised its target price by 16.8% to S$7.30 after switching its valuation framework.

“Our bull case assumes cargo yields stabilize at current levels and costs remain well controlled, driving operating leverage and earnings growth of 15% in FY24,” Morgan Stanley said. “In such a scenario, the stock could continue to re-rate, and we assume a 5% premium over our base case” to a bull case of S$9.30.