Ryanair’s ‘dumb luck’ fuel hedging plan saved €1.4 billion

Ryanair Holdings Plc’s plan to protect itself against oil price volatility paid out big when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy markets haywire.

The budget airline effectively fixed a large swathe of its jet fuel bill at about $64 a barrel during the fiscal year that ended March 31. This approach, known as hedging, generated savings of more than €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion), the company reported Monday.

Many airlines use hedging strategies to reduce their exposure to fluctuations in jet fuel prices, which soared last year, following the start of war in Ukraine. Getting the balance right can be tricky, but Ryanair was able to cash-in, with a considerable amount hedged well before Russia’s invasion even began. 

“We’re very well hedged on fuel,” Chief Executive Officer Michael O’Leary said in May of last year on a conference call. “I would ascribe that more to dumb luck than supremely intelligent management.”  

That was shortly before the month-ahead jet fuel price for northwest Europe rose as high as the equivalent of about $185 a barrel, according to fair value data compiled by Bloomberg. 

Ryanair expects its fuel bill to be €1 billion higher in the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2024, saying that higher revenue will make up for the jump. It’s almost 85% hedged at about $89 a barrel, the company said Monday. It has also started hedging for 2025.

Northwest Europe’s jet fuel price has fallen sharply since peaking last June, and is currently around $90 a barrel.