Russia’s oil and gas revenue set to fall by a third in May, Reuters calculations show

Russia's oil and gas revenue is seen falling by a third in May from a year earlier to 0.52 trillion roubles ($6.48 billion), the lowest level since July 2023 amid weaker oil prices and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations show.

Oil and gas revenue has been the most important source of cash for the Kremlin, accounting for about a quarter of total federal budget proceeds.

The proceeds would also halve from April when the budget received an additional 0.49 trillion roubles from the quarterly payment of an additional tax on oil.

According to Reuters calculations, the Russian oil price in roubles declined in April to 4,562 per barrel from 6,965 per barrel in April 2024.

Russia's oil and gas revenue for January-May could decline by 14% year on year to 4.25 trillion roubles, according to Reuters calculations.

The finance ministry will publish its estimates on June 4.

Russia has heavily increased defence and security spending since launching its military campaign in Ukraine, which it calls a special military operation, in February 2022.

Late last month, the Russian finance ministry lowered its 2025 oil and gas revenue forecast to 8.32 trillion roubles ($103.55 billion) or 3.7% of GDP, from 10.94 trillion roubles or 5.1% of GDP. It also increased the 2025 spending plan by 830 billion roubles.

($1 = 80.3500 roubles)