Russian diesel exports continue to plunge because of drone attacks

Russia’s diesel exports are continuing to plunge in the weeks after drone attacks on the nation’s oil refineries.

Data from analytics firm Kpler show that shipments averaged 0.74 million barrels a day in the 10 days through April 13. That’s down by about 25% compared with the average at this time of year between 2019 and 2023.

Traders are watching what happens to Russia’s fuel flows carefully. With the country’s oil refining rates recently languishing near an 11-month low, there’s a possibility that it may have to divert any crude oil that its plants can’t process to the export market. 

While crude flows have simultaneously climbed, there are practical limits to those shipments going much higher. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned on April 9 that Ukraine’s recent attacks on Russian oil refineries risk impacting global energy markets and urged the country to focus on military targets instead

The most recent drone attack on a Russian oil refinery happened on April 2, but it would take time for any disruption at the plants to influence export flows.